The Global Landscape of Colorectal cancer Incidence and Mortality in 2022 and Projections to 2045: New Estimates From GLOBOCAN 2022.

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC), ranking as the third most common cancer globally, poses a serious public health threat. Updated assessment of its geographic and temporal burden is crucial to understand evolving risk factors and CRC control strategy efficacy.

METHODS

Data on CRC incidence and mortality in 2022 were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardized Incidence/Mortality rates (ASIRs/ASMRs) were calculated by sex, country, and region. Burden estimates by age group and CRC subsites were derived, and future projections for 2045 were modeled using global population forecasts.

RESULTS

In 2022, an estimated 1,926,425 new CRC cases and 904,019 deaths occurred globally. CRC cases comprise 59.3% colon cancer, 37.9% rectal cancer, and 2.8% anal cancer. Age-specific analysis revealed that although the highest ASIR and ASMR were both observed in individuals aged ≥ 85 years (232.6 and 192.3 per 100,000, respectively), the highest number of CRC cases occurred in the 60-69 age group. East Asia accounted for 36.33% of global cases, with China alone contributing 26.84%. The highest ASIRs were observed in Australia/New Zealand (35.3 per 100,000), Europe (30.5), and North America (27.2), while the lowest ASIR was in Africa and South Asia. ASMRs mirrored the geographic patterns of ASIR, with Eastern Europe having the highest ASMRs (19.6 per 100,000 males) and South Asia the lowest (2.5 per 100,000 females). Moreover, rising CRC rates in transitioning economies and younger populations were noted. By 2045, the global CRC burden is projected to reach 3.28 million new cases and 1.66 million deaths, predominantly in very high and high Human Development Index (HDI) countries.

CONCLUSION

With the population aging and changing lifestyles, the burden of CRC is expected to increase, underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions, enhanced global surveillance, early screening programs, and precision prevention strategies to mitigate future incidence and mortality.