Annals of surgical oncology · 2021
Nomogram to Predict Incomplete Cytoreduction for Pseudomyxoma Peritonei.
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Bai Mingjian, Wang Shilong, Liang Guowei, Cai Ying, Lu Yiyan, Hou Nianzong, Ma Ruiqing, Xu Hongbin, Zhang Man
Аннотация
BACKGROUNDS: The completeness of cytoreduction is one of the most important prognostic factors for patients with pseudomyxoma peritonei (PMP). To date, no nomograms have been established to predict incomplete cytoreduction (IC) for patients with PMP. The current study therefore proposed a nomogram to predict individual IC risk for PMP patients.
METHODS: Between 1 June 2013, and 22 November 2019, 144 consecutive PMP patients who underwent cytoreductive surgery (CRS) combined with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) for the first time in our center were included in a retrospective study. Possible predictors of cytoreducibility were analyzed using logistic regression modeling to predict IC for PMP patients. A nomogram was developed based on the multivariate analysis and further investigated for internal validation.
RESULTS: After CRS, the 144 participants were divided into complete CRS (CCRS) (n = 46) and IC (n = 98) subgroups. Four independent predictors (sex, disease duration, anemia, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 199)) were included in the prediction model. Then, a nomogram predicting IC was established based on the aforementioned variables, which demonstrated good predictive accuracy (C-index, 0.837; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.764-0.894). The predicted probability was close to the actual observed outcome according to the calibration plot.
CONCLUSIONS: The current work led to the development of a nomogram capable of predicting IC for PMP patients who demonstrated good performance. Risk stratification by the established nomogram had ability to optimize individual IC prediction and help physicians to establish meticulous preoperative plans.
METHODS: Between 1 June 2013, and 22 November 2019, 144 consecutive PMP patients who underwent cytoreductive surgery (CRS) combined with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) for the first time in our center were included in a retrospective study. Possible predictors of cytoreducibility were analyzed using logistic regression modeling to predict IC for PMP patients. A nomogram was developed based on the multivariate analysis and further investigated for internal validation.
RESULTS: After CRS, the 144 participants were divided into complete CRS (CCRS) (n = 46) and IC (n = 98) subgroups. Four independent predictors (sex, disease duration, anemia, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 199)) were included in the prediction model. Then, a nomogram predicting IC was established based on the aforementioned variables, which demonstrated good predictive accuracy (C-index, 0.837; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.764-0.894). The predicted probability was close to the actual observed outcome according to the calibration plot.
CONCLUSIONS: The current work led to the development of a nomogram capable of predicting IC for PMP patients who demonstrated good performance. Risk stratification by the established nomogram had ability to optimize individual IC prediction and help physicians to establish meticulous preoperative plans.