A prognostic score predicting survival following emergency surgery in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND

Survival of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) varies. We aim to develop a prognostic score for mCRC after emergency surgery to guide treatment decisions.

METHODS

Newly diagnosed mCRC patients who presented with primary tumor-related complications and underwent emergency surgery between January 1999 and December 2013 were included. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify covariates significantly associated with the time to death following surgery. A survival score was derived using the Cox regression equation.

RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 248 patients. Median patient age was 66 ± 13 years. Primary tumor was located in the left colon and rectum in 211 patients (85.1%) while 37 patients (14.9%) had primaries in the right colon. Liver, lung, and peritoneal metastases occurred in 161 patients (64.9%), 59 patients (23.8%), and 96 patients (38.7%), respectively. Majority of patients presented with either obstruction (174 patients, 70.1%) or perforation (52 patients, 21%). On multivariate analysis, age of 60 years or older (p = 0.007), carcinoembryonic antigen levels greater than 45 ng/ml (p = 0.022), presence of liver metastases (p = 0.024), and peritoneal carcinomatosis (p < 0.001) were found to be significantly associated with overall survival. A simplified score was derived with good survivors (score 0-2), moderate survivors (score 3-4), and poor survivors (score 5 and above) experiencing median survival of 7, 14, and 23 months, respectively (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The management of mCRC presenting with an emergency is challenging. A prognostic score that estimates survival after emergency surgery may aid clinical decision-making.