All-Cause Mortality and Progression Risks to Hepatic Decompensation and Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients Infected With Hepatitis C Virus.
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Xu Fujie, Moorman Anne C, Tong Xin, Gordon Stuart C, Rupp Loralee B, Lu Mei, Teshale Eyasu H, Spradling Philip R, Boscarino Joseph A, Trinacty Connie M, Schmidt Mark A, Holmberg Scott D, Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study (CHeCS) Investigators, Holmberg Scott D, Teshale Eyasu H, Spradling Philip R, Moorman Anne C, Xing Jim, Tong Xin, Xu Fujie, Gordon Stuart C, Nerenz David R, Lu Mei, Lamerato Lois, Wang Yan, Rupp Loralee B, Akkerman Nonna, Oja-Tebbe Nancy, Zhang Talan, Li Jia, Sitarik Alexander, Larkin Dana, Boscarino Joseph A, Daar Zahra S, Curry Patrick J, Smith Robert E, Vijayadeva Vinutha, Parker John V, Schmidt Mark A, Donald Judy L, Keast Erin M
Аннотация
METHODS: This was a cohort study of HCV patients identified from 4 integrated health systems in the United States who had liver biopsies during 2001-2012. The probabilities of death and progression to hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatic decompensation (hepatic encephalopathy, esophageal varices, ascites, or portal hypertension) or liver transplant were estimated over 1, 2, or 5 years by fibrosis stage (Metavir F0-F4) determined by biopsy at beginning of observation.
RESULTS: Among 2799 HCV-monoinfected patients who had a qualifying liver biopsy, the mean age at the time of biopsy was 50.7 years. The majority were male (58.9%) and non-Hispanic white (66.9%). Over a mean observation of 5.0 years, 261 (9.3%) patients died and 34 (1.2%) received liver transplants. At 5 years after biopsy, the estimated risk of progression to hepatic decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma was 37.2% in stage F4, 19.6% in F3, 4.7% in F2, and 2.3% in F0-F1 patients. Baseline biopsy stage F3 or F4 and platelet count below normal were the strongest predictors of progression to hepatic decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma.
CONCLUSIONS: The risks of death and progression to liver failure varied greatly by fibrosis stage. Clinicians and policy makers could use these progression risk data in prioritization and in determining the timing of treatment for patients in early stages of liver disease.