Global, regional, and national burden of vertebral fractures due to falls from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for the next 15 years: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease 2021 study.

OBJECTIVES

This study utilized the latest data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study to analyze the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability due to vertebral fractures from 1990 to 2021, providing information for effective management and prevention strategies.

METHODS

This study describes the trends in incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to vertebral fractures caused by falls. It employs methods such as the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, joinpoint regression analysis, and decomposition analysis for further investigation, and calculates the ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR. Finally, it predicts the incidence trend for the next 15 years using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.

RESULTS

In 2021, the number of new cases of vertebral fractures due to falls globally reached 4.7 million, with a total prevalence of 3.67 million cases, and years lived with disability (YLDs) amounted to 370,000. Compared to 1990, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was -0.37 (-0.41, -0.32), -0.35 (-0.39, -0.31), and -0.37 (-0.41, -0.33) respectively, indicating a declining trend. There are significant differences in the disease burden among different countries and regions. The APC model, Joinpoint model, and ARIMA forecasting model indicate a global declining trend in the disease burden of vertebral fractures.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the burden of vertebral fractures is on a downward trend, it continues to increase in low and middle SDI regions, as well as among the elderly population. Therefore, targeted preventive measures are still necessary to address the health outcomes related to vertebral fractures.