Lead, diabetes, hypertension, and renal function: the normative aging study.

In this prospective study, we examined changes in renal function during 6 years of follow-up in relation to baseline lead levels, diabetes, and hypertension among 448 middle-age and elderly men, a subsample of the Normative Aging Study. Lead levels were generally low at baseline, with mean blood lead, patella lead, and tibia lead values of 6.5 microg/dL, 32.4 microg/g, and 21.5 microg/g, respectively. Six percent and 26% of subjects had diabetes and hypertension at baseline, respectively. In multivariate-adjusted regression analyses, longitudinal increases in serum creatinine (SCr) were associated with higher baseline lead levels but these associations were not statistically significant. However, we observed significant interactions of blood lead and tibia lead with diabetes in predicting annual change in SCr. For example, increasing the tibia lead level from the midpoints of the lowest to the highest quartiles (9-34 microg/g) was associated with an increase in the rate of rise in SCr that was 17.6-fold greater in diabetics than in nondiabetics (1.08 mg/dL/10 years vs. 0.062 mg/dL/10 years; p < 0.01). We also observed significant interactions of blood lead and tibia lead with diabetes in relation to baseline SCr levels (tibia lead only) and follow-up SCr levels. A significant interaction of tibia lead with hypertensive status in predicting annual change in SCr was also observed. We conclude that longitudinal decline of renal function among middle-age and elderly individuals appears to depend on both long-term lead stores and circulating lead, with an effect that is most pronounced among diabetics and hypertensives, subjects who likely represent particularly susceptible groups.