International journal of urology : official journal of the Japanese Urological Association · 2020
Internal validation and decision curve analysis of a preoperative nomogram predicting a postoperative complication in pheochromocytoma surgery: An international study.
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Phillips John, Bloom Jonathan, Yarlagadda Vidhush, Schultz Luciana, Gordetsky Jennifer, Tanno Fabio Y, Chambo Jose L, Almeida Madson Q, Fragoso Maria Cbv, Srougi Miguel, Srougi Victor, Rais-Bahrami Soroush
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: To develop a preoperative nomogram that would predict the risk of a postoperative complication for pheochromocytoma patients undergoing adrenalectomy using an international database.
METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed preoperative variables and postoperative outcomes in patients who underwent adrenalectomy for pheochromocytoma in three institutions from 2000 to 2017. Internal validation of a generated nomogram was carried out with receiver operating characteristics, calibration plots, and decision curve analyses.
RESULTS: A total of 153 patients who had undergone 166 adrenalectomies were included in the study. Overall, post-adrenalectomy complications were seen in 30% of patients, whereas 9.6% of patients sustained a Clavien ≥3a complication. Independent predictors of a complication were a history of hypertension, body mass index, tumor size, and Charlson Comorbidity Index score. On internal validation, the multivariable model generated a nomogram that predicted a postoperative complication or clinically hemodynamic event with an area under the curve of 0.86, showed good calibration and had an overall net benefit.
CONCLUSIONS: An internally validated nomogram combining body mass index, Charlson Comorbidity Index score and tumor size can predict the probability of a post-adrenalectomy complication in those with and without hypertension. The model, the first of its kind in pheochromocytoma surgery, identifies patients at risk of a postoperative complication at the time of their presentation with pheochromocytoma.
METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed preoperative variables and postoperative outcomes in patients who underwent adrenalectomy for pheochromocytoma in three institutions from 2000 to 2017. Internal validation of a generated nomogram was carried out with receiver operating characteristics, calibration plots, and decision curve analyses.
RESULTS: A total of 153 patients who had undergone 166 adrenalectomies were included in the study. Overall, post-adrenalectomy complications were seen in 30% of patients, whereas 9.6% of patients sustained a Clavien ≥3a complication. Independent predictors of a complication were a history of hypertension, body mass index, tumor size, and Charlson Comorbidity Index score. On internal validation, the multivariable model generated a nomogram that predicted a postoperative complication or clinically hemodynamic event with an area under the curve of 0.86, showed good calibration and had an overall net benefit.
CONCLUSIONS: An internally validated nomogram combining body mass index, Charlson Comorbidity Index score and tumor size can predict the probability of a post-adrenalectomy complication in those with and without hypertension. The model, the first of its kind in pheochromocytoma surgery, identifies patients at risk of a postoperative complication at the time of their presentation with pheochromocytoma.