Combinations of Drug Candidate Properties Affecting Development Success and Discontinuation for 5 Diseases: Lymphoma, Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer, Arthritis, Depression, and Alzheimer Disease.

The effects of the properties of drug candidates on their successful approval for the treatment of diseases are substantial. However, the success rate of candidates when their properties are combined has not been sufficiently evaluated. We aimed to identify combinations of properties (target, action, and modality) that increased the approval success rate of drug candidates for 5 diseases as well as to understand the characteristics of discontinued candidates. We calculated the approval success rates by combining the properties of drug candidates developed for 5 diseases (non-small cell lung cancer, lymphoma, arthritis, depression, and Alzheimer disease [AD]), using candidates for which clinical development was initiated between 2000 and 2010. We also analyzed the phases and the reasons for the discontinuation of candidates of the 5 diseases for which development was discontinued. Probable combinations of properties with relatively high success rates for the diseases except for Alzheimer disease were found. These combinations of properties were considered appropriate in light of the pathology of each disease. The percentage of candidates discontinued in phase III for Alzheimer disease was higher than that for the other diseases. The reasons for discontinuation showed different trends between combinations of properties that had high and low approval success rates. As the effects of the properties of candidates on the success rate vary depending on the intended disease, pharmaceutical companies need to consider the probability of success of candidates for individual diseases for more efficient candidate selection.