A Machine-Learning Model Using Pre-treatment Multimodal Data to Predict Sentinel Lymph Node Status After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Operable Early-stage Breast Cancer.

RATIONALE AND

OBJECTIVES

Although accurate preoperative prediction of sentinel lymph node (SLN) status in operable early-stage breast cancer (EBC) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is crucial for optimal axillary surgery, it remains challenging with a single imaging modality. We aimed to develop and validate an interpretable multimodal machine-learning model to improve diagnostic accuracy.

MATERIALS AND

METHODS

In total, 362 operable EBC patients who had completed NAC followed by surgery were enrolled, namely 216 patients in the primary cohort and 146 patients in two independent external test cohorts. Radiomics features derived from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), mammography and grayscale ultrasound were integrated with clinical risk predictors to build predictive models using Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithms. The optimal model was further selected by balancing complexity and performance, interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations, and validated in independent external cohorts stratified by breast cancer molecular subtypes to assess its clinical robustness and generalizability.

RESULTS

The LightGBM model incorporating 25 features demonstrated robust performance, achieving AUCs of 0.95, 0.93, and 0.91 in the internal validation cohort, external test cohort 1 and external cohort 2, respectively. It was predominantly driven by DCE-MRI-derived sphericity features and maintained different discriminative ability across molecular subtypes, yielding AUCs of 0.81 for HER2-overexpressing, 0.92 for Luminal B HER2-negative, 0.98 for Luminal B HER2-positive, and 0.79 for triple-negative.

CONCLUSION

The LightGBM model demonstrated promising preoperative predictive ability for SLN status after NAC in operable EBC, but its clinical utility requires validation in larger, multicenter prospective studies, considering the retrospective design, small external cohorts, and subtype imbalance.