Phenotypic plasticity of a winter-diapause mechanism copes with the effects of summer global warming in an ectothermic predator.

To adapt to changes in temperature, animals tend to invest more energy in thermal tolerance to enhance survival, which can have simultaneous costs on plastic traits. Would a decrease in genetic variability, due to global warming, affect the ability of populations with existing metabolic regulatory mechanisms to cope with extreme temperatures? To address this question, we conducted a series of experiments based on the A1B scenario of global warming, assessing within-population genetic variance in (a) morphological traits, (b) metabolic rate allometries, and (c) survival of a winter-diapausing predator ectotherm. Our study focused on the lacewing species Chrysoperla pallida, using both exogamic and endogamic artificial genetic lines. We discovered that both lines use their winter-diapausing phenotype to adapt to summer extreme temperatures caused by extreme heating conditions, but the exogamic line is prone to express phenotypic plasticity in metabolic scaling, with a trade-off between body size and mandible size, i.e. larger individuals tended to develop smaller mandibles to better survive. These findings highlight the significance of substantial phenotypic plasticity and pre-existing metabolic regulatory mechanisms in enabling ectotherms to cope with potential extreme heating occurring in global warming.