Preventive medicine · 2025
Estimated projection of cancer mortality in Taiwan until 2050.
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Su Shih-Yung
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: This study projected mortality trends through 2050 for 17 cancers in Taiwan by using mortality data from 1996 to 2023.
METHODS: The synthesized age-period-cohort prediction method is used for projection.
RESULTS: Among men, mortality from oral, prostate, and kidney cancers would increase by 2050. Esophageal and brain cancers follow a U-shaped trend. Mortality from most other cancers would decline. Lung (18.54 % of all cancer deaths), prostate (17.25 %), oral (15.10 %), colorectal (11.11 %), and liver (9.07 %) cancers would become leading causes of cancer death in men by 2050, accounting for 71.08 % of all cancer deaths. Mortality from bladder and kidney cancers would slightly increase. Among women, mortality from ovarian cancer would increase steadily. Pancreatic, breast, cervical, endometrial, bladder, and brain cancers would follow a U-shaped trend. Mortality from other cancers would decline. Lung (13.63 %), breast (13.06 %), bladder (12.90 %), colorectal (12.81 %), and pancreatic (11.24 %) cancers would become leading causes of cancer death in women by 2050, accounting for 63.65 % of all cancer deaths. Mortality from ovarian cancer would increase from 3.57 % to 5.42 % (from 2023 to 2050).
CONCLUSIONS: Kidney, prostate, pancreatic, endometrial, ovarian, and bladder cancers are projected to surpass their observation in past and may become new threat in future.
METHODS: The synthesized age-period-cohort prediction method is used for projection.
RESULTS: Among men, mortality from oral, prostate, and kidney cancers would increase by 2050. Esophageal and brain cancers follow a U-shaped trend. Mortality from most other cancers would decline. Lung (18.54 % of all cancer deaths), prostate (17.25 %), oral (15.10 %), colorectal (11.11 %), and liver (9.07 %) cancers would become leading causes of cancer death in men by 2050, accounting for 71.08 % of all cancer deaths. Mortality from bladder and kidney cancers would slightly increase. Among women, mortality from ovarian cancer would increase steadily. Pancreatic, breast, cervical, endometrial, bladder, and brain cancers would follow a U-shaped trend. Mortality from other cancers would decline. Lung (13.63 %), breast (13.06 %), bladder (12.90 %), colorectal (12.81 %), and pancreatic (11.24 %) cancers would become leading causes of cancer death in women by 2050, accounting for 63.65 % of all cancer deaths. Mortality from ovarian cancer would increase from 3.57 % to 5.42 % (from 2023 to 2050).
CONCLUSIONS: Kidney, prostate, pancreatic, endometrial, ovarian, and bladder cancers are projected to surpass their observation in past and may become new threat in future.