A Dynamic Succession-Based Life-Cycle Simulation Model for Projecting Carbon Source-Sink Transitions in Urban Plant Communities.

Urban plant communities are widely regarded as important nature-based solutions for climate mitigation, yet their actual carbon benefits remain uncertain: vegetation growth is accompanied by carbon emissions from construction and long-term maintenance, and existing assessments rarely integrate community succession, interspecific competition, and maintenance-related emissions within a consistent life-cycle framework. To address these limitations, this study developed a dynamic succession-based life-cycle simulation model to project the 50-year carbon source-sink transitions of 150 typical urban plant communities in Tianjin, China. The model updates plant structural attributes-diameter at breast height, crown width, and tree height-iteratively by linking individual plant growth to environmental suitability and neighborhood competition through a Plant Health Index. Simulated structural trajectories were coupled with biomass equations and carbon content coefficients to estimate aboveground carbon sequestration, while construction and maintenance emissions were quantified using life cycle assessment, enabling evaluation of modeled net carbon balance rather than gross carbon sequestration alone. Under the modeled 50-year scenario, most communities were projected to act as carbon sources during the early stage but gradually shifted toward carbon sinks as biomass accumulated; 86.1% of the communities were projected to become net carbon sinks after 50 years (a scenario-based projection under specified growth, maintenance, and emission assumptions). The highest modeled net carbon balance reached 3186.08 kg·C·ha-1, whereas the weakest community remained a slight carbon source at -81.21 kg·C·ha-1. Vertical structural complexity and species richness were the strongest positive predictors of modeled net carbon balance, followed by three-dimensional green quantity and canopy closure. Among maintenance processes, fertilization was the dominant emission source, followed by pesticide application and irrigation; comparative scenario analysis showed that resource-saving maintenance consistently improved projected net carbon balance relative to high-maintenance management. These results suggest that low-carbon planting design should prioritize locally adapted species, multi-layered vertical structures, and adaptive maintenance over simply maximizing planting density or minimizing inputs. The results represent scenario-based projections of aboveground vegetation carbon balance; belowground biomass, soil carbon, litter carbon, dead organic matter, and parameter uncertainty were not fully incorporated, and future studies should address these limitations to improve the robustness and transferability of the proposed framework.