Development and validation of a lung metastases-predicting nomogram for intermediate- to high-risk differentiated thyroid carcinoma patients.

Aim: This research aimed to construct a clinical model for forecasting the likelihood of lung metastases in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) with intermediate- to high-risk.

Methods

In this study, 375 DTC patients at intermediate to high risk were included. They were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). A nomogram was created using the training group and then validated in the validation set using calibration, decision curve analysis (DCA) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

The calibration curves demonstrated excellent consistency between the predicted and the actual probability. ROC analysis showed that the area under the curve in the training cohort was 0.865 and 0.845 in the validation cohort. Also, the DCA curve indicated that this nomogram had good clinical utility.

Conclusion

A user-friendly nomogram was constructed to predict the lung metastases probability with a high net benefit.