Alcohol consumption and mortality: modelling risks for men and women at different ages.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the relation between alcohol consumption and risk of death, the level of alcohol consumption at which risk is least, and how these vary with age and sex.

DESIGN

Analysis using published systematic reviews and population data.

SETTING

England and Wales in 1997.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Death from any of the following causes: cancer of lip, oral cavity, pharynx, oesophagus, colon, rectum, liver, larynx, and breast, essential hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, cirrhosis, non-cirrhotic chronic liver disease, chronic pancreatitis, and injuries.

RESULTS

A direct dose-response relation exists between alcohol consumption and risk of death in women aged 16-54 and in men aged 16-34. At older ages the relation is U shaped. The level at which the risk is lowest increases with age, reaching 3 units a week in women aged over 65 and 8 units a week in men aged over 65. The level at which the risk is increased by 5% above this minimum is 8 units a week in women aged 16-24 and 5 units a week in men aged 16-24, increasing to 20 and 34 units a week in women and men aged over 65, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantially increased risks of all cause mortality can occur even in people drinking lower than recommended limits, and especially among younger people.