Prognostic and theranostic 18F-FDG PET biomarkers for anti-PD1 immunotherapy in metastatic melanoma: association with outcome and transcriptomics.

PURPOSE: An imaging-based stratification tool is needed to identify melanoma patients who will benefit from anti Programmed Death-1 antibody (anti-PD1). We aimed at identifying biomarkers for survival and response evaluated in lymphoid tissue metabolism in spleen and bone marrow before initiation of therapy.

METHODS: This retrospective study included 55 patients from two institutions who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT before anti-PD1. Parameters extracted were SUVmax, SUVmean, HISUV (SUV-based Heterogeneity Index), TMTV (total metabolic tumor volume), TLG (total lesion glycolysis), BLR (Bone marrow-to-Liver SUVmax ratio), and SLR (Spleen-to-Liver SUVmax ratio). Each parameter was dichotomized using the median as a threshold. Association with survival, best overall response (BOR), and transcriptomic analyses (NanoString assay) were evaluated using Cox prediction models, Wilcoxon tests, and Spearman's correlation, respectively.

RESULTS: At 20.7 months median follow-up, 33 patients had responded, and 29 patients died. Median PFS and OS were 11.4 (95%CI 2.7-20.2) and 28.5 (95%CI 13.4-43.8) months. TMTV (>25cm3), SLR (>0.77), and BLR (>0.79) correlated with shorter survival. High TMTV (>25 cm3), SLR (>0.77), and BLR (>0.79) correlated with shorter survival, with TMTV (HR PFS 2.2, p = 0.02, and HR OS 2.5, p = 0.02) and BLR (HR OS 2.3, p = 0.04) remaining significant in a multivariable analysis. Low TMTV and TLG correlated with BOR (p = 0.03). Increased glucose metabolism in bone marrow (BLR) was associated with transcriptomic profiles including regulatory T cell markers (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: Low tumor burden correlates with survival and objective response while hematopoietic tissue metabolism correlates inversely with survival. These biomarkers should be further evaluated for potential clinical application.