European journal of cancer (Oxford, England : 1990) · 2026
Risk of recurrence of stage I to III melanoma in Norway, 2008-2022.
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Giorcelli Anastasia, Valberg Morten, Green Adele C, Veierød Marit B, Costa Denise R, Gran Jon Michael, Svendsen Henrik L, Jespersen Henrik, Andreassen Bettina K, Robsahm Trude E, Ghiasvand Reza
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Contemporary population-based data on patterns of melanoma recurrence remain limited, yet are required for planning treatment and surveillance. We aimed to estimate the risk of recurrence following a first primary invasive melanoma, by time since diagnosis, and by patient and tumour characteristics.
METHODS: This nationwide cohort study included patients aged ≥ 18 years with a first primary melanoma, stage I-III (American Joint Committee on Cancer, 8th Edition), recorded by the Cancer Registry of Norway in 2008-2021. Patients were followed-up until the first melanoma recurrence, death (without recurrence), or 10 years post-diagnosis, whichever occurred first. Study outcomes were cumulative risk, overall and by patient and tumour characteristics, were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator.
RESULTS: Among 24,095 included patients, 3276 experienced a recurrence, while 2844 died without recurrence. The cumulative recurrence risk increased rapidly from 5.8% (95% confidence interval, (CI): 5.5-6.1%) at 1 year to 11.1% (CI: 10.6-11.5%) at 3 years and then rose more gradually to a 10-year recurrence risk of 16.7% (CI: 16.2-17.3%). Death without recurrence increased steadily throughout follow-up. The highest 10-year recurrence risks were observed in men (20.6%), patients aged 70-79 (20.8%), TNM stage III (47.8%) and those with tumours > 4.00 mm thick (43.4%), or melanomas that were ulcerated (37.0%), nodular (31.5%), or on the head/neck (21.7%).
CONCLUSIONS: 10-year recurrence risk after diagnosis of a first primary melanoma was 16.7%, compared with 17.8% risk of death without recurrence. These findings provide an empirical basis for risk-stratified surveillance strategies, particularly during the early follow-up period.
METHODS: This nationwide cohort study included patients aged ≥ 18 years with a first primary melanoma, stage I-III (American Joint Committee on Cancer, 8th Edition), recorded by the Cancer Registry of Norway in 2008-2021. Patients were followed-up until the first melanoma recurrence, death (without recurrence), or 10 years post-diagnosis, whichever occurred first. Study outcomes were cumulative risk, overall and by patient and tumour characteristics, were estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator.
RESULTS: Among 24,095 included patients, 3276 experienced a recurrence, while 2844 died without recurrence. The cumulative recurrence risk increased rapidly from 5.8% (95% confidence interval, (CI): 5.5-6.1%) at 1 year to 11.1% (CI: 10.6-11.5%) at 3 years and then rose more gradually to a 10-year recurrence risk of 16.7% (CI: 16.2-17.3%). Death without recurrence increased steadily throughout follow-up. The highest 10-year recurrence risks were observed in men (20.6%), patients aged 70-79 (20.8%), TNM stage III (47.8%) and those with tumours > 4.00 mm thick (43.4%), or melanomas that were ulcerated (37.0%), nodular (31.5%), or on the head/neck (21.7%).
CONCLUSIONS: 10-year recurrence risk after diagnosis of a first primary melanoma was 16.7%, compared with 17.8% risk of death without recurrence. These findings provide an empirical basis for risk-stratified surveillance strategies, particularly during the early follow-up period.