Global, Regional and National Burden of Stomach Cancer and Its Prediction in 25 Years: A Cross-Sectional Study of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Aims/Background Given the tremendous threat of stomach cancer (SC) to global public health, detailed information and dynamic updates on the SC health burden are needed to mitigate the repercussions. In this article, we present a systematic analysis of the global burden and trends of SC using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, aiming to provide insights for forming effective global management and prevention strategies. Methods Stomach cancer incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) were estimated. Then, trends of the disease burden were analyzed using the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Lastly, we made a unique attempt to use two powerful and versatile techniques, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing (ES) models, to provide more comprehensive and accurate forecasts for future trends in the disease burden. Results Despite the steady decreasing trend in age-standardized rates, the total numbers of incidence, prevalence, and deaths all increased from 1990 to 2021. Subgroup analysis demonstrated great disparities in different age and gender groups, sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles, GBD regions and countries. Both the ARIMA and ES models demonstrated a persistent rise in SC cases and a concurrent decline in ASRs, with the trend being more pronounced in males. Conclusion Since SC is already a significant health issue globally, it is expected that the estimated disease burden will continue to rise in the future. Therefore, global coordinated efforts are needed to implement effective screening projects, consolidate preventive measures and formulate targeted treatments to alleviate the SC burden.