The burden and trends of depressive disorders in adolescent and young adults aged 15-29 in China, 1990-2021 and its prediction to 2030: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND

Depressive disorders (DDs) are the leading causes of disability among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) in China. This study estimated the trends of DDs burden among AYAs in China over the last 32 years, and further predicted to 2030.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) rates were used to describe the DDs burden among AYAs (aged 15-29 years) in China. Estimated annual percentage changes were used to describe the temporal trends from 1990 to 2021. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the future burden to 2030.

RESULTS

In 2021, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLDs rates (per 100,000) for DDs among AYAs in China were 1884.11 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1383.84, 2540.68), 1951.57 (95 % CI: 1527.28, 2459.70), and 323.36 (95 % CI: 208.27, 474.88), respectively. The burden was heavier in females and individuals aged 25-29. From 1990 to 2021, all groups showed a downward trend of DDs burden. Males showed an increase in DDs burden (mainly dysthymia) in most groups in 2019-2021, while the increases in DDs burden among females were mainly in 2010-2019. The main attributable risk factor was bullying victimization. Notably, although the DDs burden was predicted to decrease from 2022 to 2030, the dysthymia burden was predicted to increase.

CONCLUSIONS

The DDs burden among AYAs is a significant public health challenge in China. It is crucial to consider the disparities among different demographic characteristics, when formulating and implementing prevention strategies.