Sports medicine (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2026
Breaking Barriers: What is the Probability of Achieving Mile World Records in the Near Future?
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Alda-Blanco Alejandro, Jones Andrew M, González-Mohíno Fernando
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Whether current elite milers possess the physiological profiles required to break the men's and women's mile world records (WRs) remains unclear.
OBJECTIVE: The aim was to estimate the probability of mile WR performances in elite men and women using a bivariate Monte Carlo simulation grounded in the critical speed (CS)/curvature constant (D') bioenergetic framework.
METHODS: CS and D' were estimated via linear regression (D = D' + CS · T) from personal best times across up to seven distances (800 m-5000 m) for the top-10 men's and women's milers of the 2021-2024 Olympic cycle. Subsequently, a bivariate Monte Carlo simulation (n = 100,000; seed = 42) was conducted, sampling CS and D' from a truncated bivariate normal distribution incorporating the correlation.
RESULTS: The simulation yielded a probability of 0.06% for women surpassing the current 4:07.64 WR, with 0% probability of bettering the sub-4:00 barrier. For men, the probability of breaking the 3:43.13 WR was 0.88%, with 0.01% probability of a sub-3:40 performance. Median predicted times were 4:16.33 for women and 3:48.11 for men. CS was the dominant sensitivity predictor in both sexes (ρ = - 0.74; ρ = - 0.48, for women and men, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS: The reported probabilities derived from an elite sample (ten women, ten men) showed that under current physiological profiles, mile WRs are very unlikely events. Achieving these performances requires the convergence of extraordinary physiological capability and extrinsic factors including advanced footwear technology, aerodynamic assistance, and optimised pacing strategies.
OBJECTIVE: The aim was to estimate the probability of mile WR performances in elite men and women using a bivariate Monte Carlo simulation grounded in the critical speed (CS)/curvature constant (D') bioenergetic framework.
METHODS: CS and D' were estimated via linear regression (D = D' + CS · T) from personal best times across up to seven distances (800 m-5000 m) for the top-10 men's and women's milers of the 2021-2024 Olympic cycle. Subsequently, a bivariate Monte Carlo simulation (n = 100,000; seed = 42) was conducted, sampling CS and D' from a truncated bivariate normal distribution incorporating the correlation.
RESULTS: The simulation yielded a probability of 0.06% for women surpassing the current 4:07.64 WR, with 0% probability of bettering the sub-4:00 barrier. For men, the probability of breaking the 3:43.13 WR was 0.88%, with 0.01% probability of a sub-3:40 performance. Median predicted times were 4:16.33 for women and 3:48.11 for men. CS was the dominant sensitivity predictor in both sexes (ρ = - 0.74; ρ = - 0.48, for women and men, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS: The reported probabilities derived from an elite sample (ten women, ten men) showed that under current physiological profiles, mile WRs are very unlikely events. Achieving these performances requires the convergence of extraordinary physiological capability and extrinsic factors including advanced footwear technology, aerodynamic assistance, and optimised pacing strategies.