"Paz Total": Intensity of Risk for Exposure to Violence and Armed Conflict for Adolescents and Young Adults in Colombia, 2021-2025.

PURPOSE: In 2022, "Paz Total" (Comprehensive Peace) was established as the federal Colombian policy to address violence and armed conflict. We examine the intensity of risk for exposure to violence against civilians, battles, and explosions from 2021 to 2025 for adolescents and young adults in Colombian departments with historically high, medium, and low levels of violence.

METHODS

Data are from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project. Analyses were conducted with six repeated-measures analysis of variance models. Intensity of risk for exposure to violent events or fatalities was the dependent variable, time was a within-group independent variable, and departmental violence level was a between-group independent variable.

RESULTS

Five models indicated department violence level by time interactions (p ≤ .089). The statistically significant differences occurred in high violence level departments. After "Paz Total", there was a sustained decrease in the intensity of risk for exposure to events (p ≤ .015) and fatalities (p ≤ .014) from violence against civilians. In the first 6 months of 2025 there was an increase in the intensity of risk for exposure to battles (p < .001). In the last 6 months of 2024 and first 6 months of 2025, there was an increase in the intensity of risk for exposure to explosions (p ≤ .003).

DISCUSSION: "Paz Total" is an ambitious federal policy to address more than seventy years of violence and armed conflict in Colombia. In the first two and a half years of implementation it has had mixed effects on the intensity of risk for exposure to violence and armed conflict for adolescents and young adults in Colombia.