Should I Stay or Should I Go? Preference for Consistency Predicts Choice Perseveration in the Monty Hall Problem.

Five incentivized studies (N = 5,354) tested whether preference for consistency (PfC) predicts staying with one's initial choice in the Monty Hall problem, despite the fact that switching maximizes the probability of winning. Studies 1 and 2 found that higher PfC predicts staying, even after controlling for need for closure, preference for structure, intolerance of uncertainty, conspiracy beliefs, and numerical competence. Studies 3 and 4 provided experimental evidence that incentives moderated the link between PfC and staying, but higher (vs. lower) PfC only attenuated rather than eliminated incentive sensitivity. Study 5 identified anticipated regret over switching and losing as a mechanism underlying the effect, showing that the link between PfC and staying held across cultural contexts, although its magnitude was culturally calibrated. Together, this research shows that consistency motivation governs choice perseverance in a task that is intentionally impersonal and assumed to be driven by probabilistic reasoning rather than motivational forces.