Marine pollution bulletin · 2026
Human health risks associated with metal(loid) exposure through fish consumption in Ankara (Türkiye): A Monte Carlo-based probabilistic assessment.
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Gümüş Numan Emre, Gökbel Fuat, Bedir Muhammed Emin, Keskinkaya Hatice Banu
Аннотация
In this study, the concentrations of elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in the muscle tissues of ten different widely consumed fish species sold in Ankara city center were determined, and the potential effects of these metal(loid)s on human health were evaluated. The metal(loid) concentrations ascertained in the muscle tissues of the fish exhibited variation among the species. The highest average metal(loid) accumulations were generally found in rainbow trout and European seabass species, while the lowest values were detected in small pelagic species such as Mediterranean horse mackerel, European anchovy and whiting. For all fish species, the Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) values for individual metals and the total Hazard Index (HI) values were found to be below 1; the highest (HI) value was determined in rainbow trout at 0.0488. The deterministic cancer risks (CR) calculated for inorganic arsenic (iAs) ranged from 5.94 × 10-7 to 3.88 × 10-6, which are within acceptable risk levels. The application of the Monte Carlo simulation, a method frequently employed to account for uncertainty and variability, yielded results indicating that the HI values for non-carcinogenic risks remained below 1, even at the 95th percentile level. Principal component analysis explained 33.24% and 18.67% of variance on PC1 and PC2, respectively. In conclusion, the studied fish species are generally considered safe at current consumption levels; however, regular monitoring and the development of risk-based consumption recommendations are necessary for species showing high metal accumulation.