JNCI cancer spectrum · 2026
Population‑based registry analysis of cervical cancer trends in Tashkent Uzbekistan 2014-2024.
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Mirzaev Ulugbek Khudayberdievich, Juraev Jasur Ravshanovich, Sharipova Iroda Pulatovna, Islomov Sarvar Temurovich, Tursunova Nodira Isroilovna, Rakhmatova Sitora, Shodieva Fatima Shokir Qizi, Baynazarov Mirzarakhim Mirzakhakimovich, Odilov Khasanjon Kobiljon Ugli, Yuldasheva Dilbar Yuldashevna, Khakimov Golib Abdulloyevich
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: Cervical cancer remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among women in Uzbekistan, exceeding WHO elimination targets. Despite a school-based HPV vaccination program launched in 2019, screening coverage remains low, leading to delayed diagnoses; we examined cervical cancer trends in Tashkent (2014-2024) to evaluate the impact of the Korea Foundation for International Healthcare (KOFIH) screening project and UNFPA/UNDP HPV testing initiatives.
METHODS: We analyzed Tashkent City Oncoregister data for women diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer or carcinoma in situ (CIS) between 2014 and 2024 (n = 2,140) after data cleaning. We calculated age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, assessed survival using Kaplan-Meier methods, and identified mortality predictors using Cox regression models.
RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence of invasive cervical cancer was 14.9 per 100,000. After KOFIH and UNFPA/UNDP implementation, CIS diagnoses increased 3.4-fold (0.2 to 4.7 per 100,000), while the proportion of advanced-stage (III-IV) disease declined by 43%. Five-year survival showed clear stage dependence, ranging from 91.5% for CIS to 27.8% for stage IV. Age and stage were independent predictors of mortality. Crude mortality declined from 10.2 to 1.1 per 100,000 from 2014 to 2024, and case fatality decreased from 48.6% (2014-2019) to 27.2% (2020-2024).
CONCLUSION: Organized screening through KOFIH and UNFPA initiatives can improve early detection and reduce mortality. However, 76.6% of staged invasive cases remain advanced (II-IV), and more than 80% of women have never been screened, underscoring the need to expand screening, sustain HPV vaccination, and strengthen prevention programs in Central Asia.
METHODS: We analyzed Tashkent City Oncoregister data for women diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer or carcinoma in situ (CIS) between 2014 and 2024 (n = 2,140) after data cleaning. We calculated age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, assessed survival using Kaplan-Meier methods, and identified mortality predictors using Cox regression models.
RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence of invasive cervical cancer was 14.9 per 100,000. After KOFIH and UNFPA/UNDP implementation, CIS diagnoses increased 3.4-fold (0.2 to 4.7 per 100,000), while the proportion of advanced-stage (III-IV) disease declined by 43%. Five-year survival showed clear stage dependence, ranging from 91.5% for CIS to 27.8% for stage IV. Age and stage were independent predictors of mortality. Crude mortality declined from 10.2 to 1.1 per 100,000 from 2014 to 2024, and case fatality decreased from 48.6% (2014-2019) to 27.2% (2020-2024).
CONCLUSION: Organized screening through KOFIH and UNFPA initiatives can improve early detection and reduce mortality. However, 76.6% of staged invasive cases remain advanced (II-IV), and more than 80% of women have never been screened, underscoring the need to expand screening, sustain HPV vaccination, and strengthen prevention programs in Central Asia.