International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2026
Sixteen Days Undetected: Growth Dynamics and the Case for Pre-Positioned Response Capacity in the 2026 Bundibugyo Virus Disease Outbreak, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
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Verheyden Johan G L, Mudogo Celestin Nzanzu
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: To estimate early growth rate, back-calculate transmission onset, and characterise the case-fatality trajectory of the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease (BDBV) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the largest recorded BDBV outbreak to date.
DESIGN OR METHODS: We analysed a corrected daily surveillance series (65 observations, 14 May-27 July 2026) using non-linear least-squares regression and a Bayesian Poisson growth model fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo, with five sensitivity analyses.
RESULTS: Early confirmed cases grew at 0.1261 per day (95% CI 0.0885-0.1636), a doubling time of 5.50 days (4.24-7.83), three-fold faster than previous BDBV outbreaks (15-18 days). Bayesian back-calculation placed transmission onset on 19 April 2026 (95% highest-density interval 9-27 April), 16 days before the WHO alert and 25 days before laboratory confirmation. Confirmed case-fatality ratio rose from 12.1% to 44.3%; a higher ratio among suspected than confirmed cases on 21 May (23.6% vs 10.8%; p=0.0080) supported progressive reclassification rather than increasing virulence.
CONCLUSIONS: Rapid BDBV growth leaves little time for outbreak-triggered mobilisation. Sentinel alerts based on unexplained deaths compatible with viral haemorrhagic fever, with healthcare-worker deaths as a high-priority special case, together with pre-positioned surveillance, diagnostic, and response capacity, could reduce avoidable amplification before confirmation.
DESIGN OR METHODS: We analysed a corrected daily surveillance series (65 observations, 14 May-27 July 2026) using non-linear least-squares regression and a Bayesian Poisson growth model fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo, with five sensitivity analyses.
RESULTS: Early confirmed cases grew at 0.1261 per day (95% CI 0.0885-0.1636), a doubling time of 5.50 days (4.24-7.83), three-fold faster than previous BDBV outbreaks (15-18 days). Bayesian back-calculation placed transmission onset on 19 April 2026 (95% highest-density interval 9-27 April), 16 days before the WHO alert and 25 days before laboratory confirmation. Confirmed case-fatality ratio rose from 12.1% to 44.3%; a higher ratio among suspected than confirmed cases on 21 May (23.6% vs 10.8%; p=0.0080) supported progressive reclassification rather than increasing virulence.
CONCLUSIONS: Rapid BDBV growth leaves little time for outbreak-triggered mobilisation. Sentinel alerts based on unexplained deaths compatible with viral haemorrhagic fever, with healthcare-worker deaths as a high-priority special case, together with pre-positioned surveillance, diagnostic, and response capacity, could reduce avoidable amplification before confirmation.