Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2026
Estimating the Wider Societal Impact of Semaglutide Across Multiple Indications in Canada: an Economic Evaluation.
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Husereau Don, Evans Marc, Hahn-Pedersen Julie Hviid, King Robert, Kettle Jamie, Bray Bejamin D, Berger Marina, Luckevich Maria, Lübker Christopher, Mattke Soeren
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: Medical treatments may deliver individual, healthcare and societal impact across multiple indications. Assessing impact is challenging due to a focus on individual-level and indication-specific costs/benefits using narrow healthcare perspectives. A multi-indication model was developed for Canada to evaluate the wider societal impacts of semaglutide.
METHOD: A population-level analysis estimated the 5-year (2025-2029) impact of semaglutide in a hypothetical population of 1,000,000 eligible treated Canadians with T2D, CV disease, MASH and/or CKD. Baseline prevalence and overlaps were estimated from published data. Treatment effects were derived from clinical trial comparisons of semaglutide vs standard care. Health care resource use reduction and cost-converted environmental impact was calculated from prevalence differences in control and treatment groups. Productivity was quantified using a US-based quality-of-life driven model.
RESULTS: Among treated individuals, 50% had 1 condition, 27% had 2, and 23% had ≥3 at baseline. Model analysis projected up to 235,000 fewer obesity cases and prevention by 2029 of 650 T2D cases, 8,400 CV events, 1,100 CV deaths, 5,300 MASH stage 3-4 cases, 2,200 stage 4 CKD/end-stage renal disease cases, and 48,800 obesity- and T2D-related complications, although 21,200 gastrointestinal adverse events were estimated to occur. Treatment with semaglutide was estimated to avoid 22,200 hospitalisations and 330kt CO2e, with estimated HCRU cost reductions of CAD 2.0billion and modelled productivity gains of CAD 19.9billion, offsetting CAD 20.4billion semaglutide (1mg, 2.4mg) treatment costs. Results were most sensitive to baseline utility values.
CONCLUSION: Modelled 5-year impacts of semaglutide treatment suggest potential wide-ranging individual, healthcare and societal benefits across cardiometabolic comorbidities that are not captured in traditional narrow healthcare perspectives.
METHOD: A population-level analysis estimated the 5-year (2025-2029) impact of semaglutide in a hypothetical population of 1,000,000 eligible treated Canadians with T2D, CV disease, MASH and/or CKD. Baseline prevalence and overlaps were estimated from published data. Treatment effects were derived from clinical trial comparisons of semaglutide vs standard care. Health care resource use reduction and cost-converted environmental impact was calculated from prevalence differences in control and treatment groups. Productivity was quantified using a US-based quality-of-life driven model.
RESULTS: Among treated individuals, 50% had 1 condition, 27% had 2, and 23% had ≥3 at baseline. Model analysis projected up to 235,000 fewer obesity cases and prevention by 2029 of 650 T2D cases, 8,400 CV events, 1,100 CV deaths, 5,300 MASH stage 3-4 cases, 2,200 stage 4 CKD/end-stage renal disease cases, and 48,800 obesity- and T2D-related complications, although 21,200 gastrointestinal adverse events were estimated to occur. Treatment with semaglutide was estimated to avoid 22,200 hospitalisations and 330kt CO2e, with estimated HCRU cost reductions of CAD 2.0billion and modelled productivity gains of CAD 19.9billion, offsetting CAD 20.4billion semaglutide (1mg, 2.4mg) treatment costs. Results were most sensitive to baseline utility values.
CONCLUSION: Modelled 5-year impacts of semaglutide treatment suggest potential wide-ranging individual, healthcare and societal benefits across cardiometabolic comorbidities that are not captured in traditional narrow healthcare perspectives.