Climate vulnerability and governance impact the payoff of policy drivers for SDG 7 outcomes in BRICS countries.

Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) in large emerging economies requires energy policies that operate under diverse institutional and climatic conditions. We examine BRICS countries over 2000-2022 to assess how climate vulnerability and governance quality condition the estimated marginal effects of environmental policy stringency, innovation, financial development, inequality, and demographic structure on energy access, renewable energy, and energy efficiency. A two-stage empirical framework combines moderated GLS estimation with post-estimation evaluation of marginal-effect surfaces across contrasting governance-vulnerability regimes and country-specific conditions. The results show that stronger governance and lower climate vulnerability are generally associated with more favorable estimated effects of finance, innovation, and policy stringency, while weak governance and high vulnerability can weaken or reverse these relationships. Policy priorities also differ across SDG 7 subgoals and BRICS economies. These findings support context-specific energy policies that align institutional strengthening and climate resilience with SDG 7 implementation.