[Changes and trend projections in human resource allocation of disease prevention and control institutions in Beijing City, 2018-2025].

Objective

To analyze changes in human resource allocation in Beijing's disease prevention and control institutions from 2018 to 2025, and predict the development trend from 2026 to 2030.

Methods

Human resource data from 19 disease prevention and control institutions in Beijing from 2018 to 2025 were collected using a self-designed questionnaire. Changes in the numbers of authorized staff, professional and technical personnel, health professional and technical personnel, and other professional and technical personnel were analyzed at the municipal level and across five urban spatial areas. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to assess trends in personnel numbers. A grey GM(1, 1) model was constructed to predict changes in human resources in Beijing's disease prevention and control institutions from 2026 to 2030.

Results

From 2018 to 2025, the numbers of authorized staff, professional and technical personnel, and health professional and technical personnel in Beijing's disease prevention and control institutions increased by 767, 784, and 775, respectively, with growth rates of 26.8%, 30.3%, and 34.5%. The grey GM(1, 1) model predicted that by 2030, the numbers of authorized staff, professional and technical personnel, health professional and technical personnel, and other professional and technical personnel would reach 4 437, 4 235, 3 774, and 468, respectively.

Conclusion

From 2018 to 2025, the total human resources of Beijing's disease prevention and control institutions exhibited a continuous upward trend, and this growth is projected to persist from 2026 to 2030. Professional and technical personnel, particularly health professional and technical personnel, will remain the primary drivers of this expansion.