Quantitative risk assessment of Salmonella exposure along the chicken production-to-consumption chain in China combined with meta-analysis.

Salmonella transmission along the broiler production chain represents a significant route for foodborne illness in humans. China exhibits regional disparities in foodborne salmonellosis, yet the specific contribution of chicken consumption to human exposure across different Salmonella serotypes remains unclear. To bridge this gap, a farm-to-fork quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) framework was developed. The meta-analysis of currently available data showed that the representative estimate of Salmonella prevalence on Chinese broiler farms was 7.17% (95% CI: 4.74-10.70%). Incorporating the Beta-Poisson dose-response relationship, the model yielded a baseline relative risk estimate of 2.99 × 106 (95% CI: 1.27 × 106-5.79 × 106) chicken-attributable salmonellosis cases per year in China. Sensitivity analysis identified chilling, scalding, and Salmonella load on cutting knives as critical control points. In the ranking based on farm-level prevalence, Salmonella Enteritidis had the highest relative risk estimate. In the ranking based on the proportion of resistant strains, ampicillin had the highest relative risk estimate, corresponding to an estimated 2.39 × 106 annual cases. However, this estimate was based on a limited number of studies and should be interpreted with caution. Scenario analyses showed that replacing sodium hypochlorite with peracetic acid during chilling reduced the risk of illness by 24.09%. Increasing the separation rate of raw and cooked utensils to 75% during household handling reduced the estimated annual number of cases by approximately 51%.