Integrating niches of the pathogen, multiple host and vector species highlights abiotic constraints and host-vector interactions shaping pine wilt disease risk in China.

BACKGROUND: Pine wilt disease (PWD), caused by Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (PWN), is a major threat to forest health and pest management in China. Because PWD results from interactions among the pathogen, vector insects, and host plants, single-component analyses may misrepresent disease risk and overlook species-specific contributions. We integrated the environmental niches of the pathogen, hosts, and vectors to characterize abiotic constraints and biotic influences on PWD risk, quantify species-specific contributions and interactions, and inform surveillance priorities.

RESULTS: Ensemble ecological niche models were developed for PWN, 17 susceptible hosts, and 10 potential cerambycid vectors across China and integrated with GeoDetector analysis. Although suitability patterns were broadly consistent, PWN had a much narrower suitable range than hosts and vectors, and this concordance declined under future climate scenarios. Bioclimatic variables were the primary determinants of habitat suitability for most species, whereas PWN showed narrower optimal ranges for key environmental drivers than most hosts and vectors. GeoDetector revealed substantial interspecific variation in explanatory power for PWN suitability, with Pinus massoniana, P. thunbergii, and Monochamus alternatus showing the highest q-values (0.78, 0.77, and 0.79, respectively). All host-vector combinations explained PWN suitability better than either species alone.

CONCLUSION: PWD risk in China cannot be inferred from host or vector availability alone, but is shaped by stronger abiotic constraints on PWN and host-vector interactions. Climatically marginal regions with suitable hosts and vectors should be prioritized for surveillance, and species with high q-values warrant further investigation. © 2026 Society of Chemical Industry.