[Analysis of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong from 2012 to 2023 and trend prediction from 2024 to 2030].

Objective

This study aims to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2023, and predict its development trends from 2024 to 2030.

Methods

The incidence and mortality data of colorectal cancer in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2023 were obtained from the Shandong Provincial Cancer Registry. The annual, gender-specific, urban-rural crude incidence rate, age-specific incidence rate, crude mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate of colorectal cancer were calculated. The standardized rates were based on the age composition of the 2000 Chinese Standard Population. Joinpoint 4.8.0.1 software was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC). The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict the incidence and mortality trends of colorectal cancer from 2024 to 2030.

Results

From 2012 to 2023, the standardized incidence rate of colorectal cancer in Shandong Province increased from 16.21/100 000 to 19.16/100 000 (AAPC=1.38%, P=0.009), while the standardized mortality rate decreased from 7.02/100 000 to 5.84/100 000 with no statistically significant overall change (AAPC=-1.66%, P=0.120). The standardized incidence rate showed an upward trend in males and rural residents (AAPC=1.76%, P=0.003; AAPC=2.23%, P=0.001, respectively), with no significant changes observed in females and urban residents. The standardized mortality rate declined significantly in females and urban residents (AAPC=-2.78%, P=0.037; AAPC=-2.39%, P=0.026, respectively), and remained stable in males and rural residents. Both age-specific incidence and mortality rates rose rapidly after the age of 45 and peaked in the 80-84 age group. The BAPC model prediction results indicated that the standardized incidence rate of colorectal cancer in Shandong Province would level off from 2024 to 2030 (AAPC=0.32%, P=0.005), rising slowly from 18.93/100 000 in 2024 to 19.26/100 000 in 2030. The standardized mortality rate would show a continuous downward trend (AAPC=-0.91%, P<0.001), decreasing from 5.79/100 000 in 2024 to 5.51/100 000 in 2030.

Conclusions

The standardized incidence rate of colorectal cancer in Shandong Province presents an upward trend and is expected to level off before 2030, while the standardized mortality rate shows a downward trend. Males and rural areas are the key populations and regions for prevention and control.