[A SCENARIO MODEL FOR PRELIMINARY BUDGET AND ECONOMIC PRIORITIZATION OF HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES IN AN URBAN HEALTHCARE SYSTEM].

INTRODUCTION

Standardized health technology assessment should support managerial prioritization in the context of restored outpatient demand, active disease detection, and modernization of urban healthcare. Urban healthcare systems need a model that can preliminarily estimate which disease classes generate preventable burden and where standards or technologies may have the highest scenario-based economic potential. The aim was to develop and test a scenario model for budget and economic prioritization of health technologies using standardized indicators of incident morbidity, resource pressure, and a conditional economic equivalent of preventable burden.

MATERIALS AND

METHODS

Open statistical data for Moscow and the Moscow Region for 2020-2024 were used. The analysis included incident morbidity and detection trends, resource dynamics, cases per physician, 1%, 3%, and 5% morbidity reduction scenarios, and an HTA priority index.

RESULTS

In 2024, the burden reached 97.1 incident cases per physician in Moscow and 162.5 in the Moscow Region. Under the baseline 3% reduction scenario, the conditional economic equivalent amounted to RUB 11.1 billion for Moscow and RUB 3.0 billion for the Moscow Region. Respiratory diseases had the highest HTA priority.

CONCLUSION

The model can serve as an early filter for selecting technologies that require further clinical, economic, and organizational assessment.