The spine journal : official journal of the North American Spine Society · 2026
Impact of scoliosis screening on surgical threshold attainment: a 30-year population-based longitudinal cohort study.
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Po Erica Yan Ping, Cheung Jason Pui Yin, Kwan Kenny Yat Hong, Hung Alec Lik Hang, Lam Tsz Ping, Cheng Jack Chun Yiu, Zhang Teng, Shea Graham Ka Hon, Cheung Kenneth Man Chee, Wu Yik Chung, Fong Daniel Yee Tak
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: The United States Preventive Services Task Force cites insufficient evidence that treating screen-detected AIS improves long-term health outcomes, questioning the value of screening.
PURPOSE: To assess the association between a 30-year sustained territory-wide scoliosis screening program and long-term trends in surgical threshold attainment for AIS following the Scoliosis Research Society's criteria.
STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: Population-based longitudinal cohort study PATIENT SAMPLE: We included adolescents aged 10-19 years with AIS and Cobb angle ≥ 20° between 1995 and 2024 from the two tertiary referral scoliosis clinics.
OUTCOME MEASURES: Trends in surgical threshold attainment for AIS.
METHODS: Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis assessed temporal trends associated with the screening program, with Kaplan-Meier and adjusted Cox modelling as sensitivity analyses.
RESULTS: With an overall screening rate of 90.3%, representing 30,818 adolescents, 26,232 (76.9%) females were identified; 2,563 reached surgical threshold (2,011 [78.5%] females). APC analyses showed a pronounced decline in surgical threshold attainment (RR: 1.00 to 0.18) with significant period and cohort effects (p<0.001). Kaplan-Meier and Cox analyses demonstrated improved surgical threshold-free survival (χ² = 93.8, p<0.001) and lower hazards of surgical threshold attainment associated with screening (HR: 0.29; 95% CI, 0.27- 0.32; p<0.001). Concurrently, AIS prevalence with Cobb angle ≥ 20° increased from 0.02% (95% CI, 0.01% - 0.02%) in 1995 to 1.59% (95% CI, 1.56% - 1.62%) in 2019.
CONCLUSIONS: This 30-year population-based study provides evidence that screening, by enabling earlier detection, is associated with substantial and sustained decline in surgical threshold attainment. This decline was likely multifactorial, reflecting concurrent advances in conservative management and clinical care. These findings provide important longitudinal evidence to inform scoliosis screening recommendations.
PURPOSE: To assess the association between a 30-year sustained territory-wide scoliosis screening program and long-term trends in surgical threshold attainment for AIS following the Scoliosis Research Society's criteria.
STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: Population-based longitudinal cohort study PATIENT SAMPLE: We included adolescents aged 10-19 years with AIS and Cobb angle ≥ 20° between 1995 and 2024 from the two tertiary referral scoliosis clinics.
OUTCOME MEASURES: Trends in surgical threshold attainment for AIS.
METHODS: Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis assessed temporal trends associated with the screening program, with Kaplan-Meier and adjusted Cox modelling as sensitivity analyses.
RESULTS: With an overall screening rate of 90.3%, representing 30,818 adolescents, 26,232 (76.9%) females were identified; 2,563 reached surgical threshold (2,011 [78.5%] females). APC analyses showed a pronounced decline in surgical threshold attainment (RR: 1.00 to 0.18) with significant period and cohort effects (p<0.001). Kaplan-Meier and Cox analyses demonstrated improved surgical threshold-free survival (χ² = 93.8, p<0.001) and lower hazards of surgical threshold attainment associated with screening (HR: 0.29; 95% CI, 0.27- 0.32; p<0.001). Concurrently, AIS prevalence with Cobb angle ≥ 20° increased from 0.02% (95% CI, 0.01% - 0.02%) in 1995 to 1.59% (95% CI, 1.56% - 1.62%) in 2019.
CONCLUSIONS: This 30-year population-based study provides evidence that screening, by enabling earlier detection, is associated with substantial and sustained decline in surgical threshold attainment. This decline was likely multifactorial, reflecting concurrent advances in conservative management and clinical care. These findings provide important longitudinal evidence to inform scoliosis screening recommendations.