Psychiatry research · 2026
Association between the 2008 financial crisis and suicidal thoughts and behaviors among the United States adolescents: An interrupted time series analysis.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
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Cai Ze-Min, Xi Jun-Yan, Luo Jun, Hu Wei
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: Economic crises are associated with adverse mental health in adults, yet their association with non-fatal suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs) in adolescents remains poorly understood. We examined temporal trends in five STBs among United States adolescents, before and after the 2008 financial crisis.
METHOD: We performed a population-based interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of 13 biennial waves (1999-2023; n = 198,941) of the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS), using sampling weights for national representativeness. Joinpoint regression independently localized trend inflection points, and segmented ITS regression with Newey-West standard errors estimated level and slope changes around the 2008 crisis, with stratification by sex, grade, and race/ethnicity, and sensitivity analyses.
RESULTS: STBs declined before the crisis, excepted sad/Hopelessness. At 2009, immediate level changes were small and heterogeneous across outcomes, whereas every series showed a significant post-crisis slope increase (β3 = 0.29-2.27 percentage points per biennial wave; all P < 0.001), reversing the pre-crisis declines or stability into sustained rises. By 2023, observed prevalence exceeded the counterfactual projection for all outcomes. Reversals were roughly twice as large in females versus males.
CONCLUSION: The 2008 financial crisis was followed by a reversal of pre-crisis declines into sustained increases in adolescent STBs, with prevalence exceeding pre-crisis projections by 2023, indicating delayed mental-health consequences. These findings support sustained service provision beyond acute crisis periods, prioritizing the most affected groups, particularly female adolescents.
METHOD: We performed a population-based interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of 13 biennial waves (1999-2023; n = 198,941) of the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS), using sampling weights for national representativeness. Joinpoint regression independently localized trend inflection points, and segmented ITS regression with Newey-West standard errors estimated level and slope changes around the 2008 crisis, with stratification by sex, grade, and race/ethnicity, and sensitivity analyses.
RESULTS: STBs declined before the crisis, excepted sad/Hopelessness. At 2009, immediate level changes were small and heterogeneous across outcomes, whereas every series showed a significant post-crisis slope increase (β3 = 0.29-2.27 percentage points per biennial wave; all P < 0.001), reversing the pre-crisis declines or stability into sustained rises. By 2023, observed prevalence exceeded the counterfactual projection for all outcomes. Reversals were roughly twice as large in females versus males.
CONCLUSION: The 2008 financial crisis was followed by a reversal of pre-crisis declines into sustained increases in adolescent STBs, with prevalence exceeding pre-crisis projections by 2023, indicating delayed mental-health consequences. These findings support sustained service provision beyond acute crisis periods, prioritizing the most affected groups, particularly female adolescents.