Outcomes of Glaucoma Referrals in Adults Aged 18 to 40 Years.

IMPORTANCE

While early detection of glaucoma is vital to prevent irreversible vision loss, there are sparse data on the effectiveness of glaucoma referrals and methods to establish evidence-based referral guidelines in large, diverse populations.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prevalence and risk factors for diagnosed glaucoma and loss to follow-up among adult patients aged 18 to 40 years after a new diagnosis of referable glaucoma (ie, with glaucoma or suspected glaucoma).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND

PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study included patients aged 18 to 40 years presenting to Kaiser Permanente Southern California, a large managed health care system, for first-time eye examinations between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2018. Data analysis occurred between September 2022 and August 2024.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was glaucoma diagnosed within 2 years of the first eye examination. The secondary outcome was the loss to follow-up, defined as failure to receive a glaucoma evaluation with visual field or optical coherence tomography testing within 2 years.

RESULTS

The cohort included 292 453 patients aged 18 to 40 years who underwent first-time eye evaluations (mean [SD] age, 29.8 [6.4] years). Among 12 050 identified patients with referable glaucoma (52.3% female), 6827 (56.7%) completed glaucoma evaluations, of whom 563 (8.2%) were diagnosed with glaucoma (344 [61.1%] with open angle, 28 [5.0%] with angle closure, 84 [14.9%] with secondary glaucoma, and 107 [19.0%] with unspecified glaucoma). On multivariable analysis, male sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.55 [95% CI, 1.07-2.27]), higher intraocular pressure (IOP) (OR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.15-1.23] per 1 mm Hg), and greater cup-disc ratio (CDR) (OR, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.34-1.75] per 0.1 unit) were associated with greater odds of glaucoma. Dichotomized age, IOP, and CDR models stratified 51 of 1613 patients (3.2%) into the low-risk group and 202 of 1477 patients (13.7%) into the high-risk group. Being younger than 32 years and having an IOP less than 18 mm Hg and a CDR less than 0.7 yielded a negative predictive value of 98.2% for a glaucoma diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study, the diagnostic yield of glaucoma referrals was low among adults aged 18 to 40 years with first-time eye examinations. A simple risk-stratification strategy could help identify individuals with low and high risks of developing glaucoma, and adoption of evidence-based risk stratification and referral guidelines by health care systems and clinicians could improve equity of glaucoma care and use of eye-care resources.