Long-term trends and burden projections of mortality from cancers of the lip, oral cavity, and pharynx in the United States, 1999-2023: a retrospective study.

OBJECTIVES

To examine mortality trends and disparities in cancers of the lip, oral cavity, and pharynx (LOCP) among adults in the United States.

METHOD AND MATERIALS: Underlying cause-of-death data (ICD-10 C00-C14) were analyzed for LOCP cancers among adults aged ≥ 25 years from 1999 to 2023 using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research database (CDC WONDER). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were standardized to the 2000 US standard population. Joinpoint regression estimated annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models projected mortality through 2046.

RESULTS

From 1999 to 2023, 225,876 deaths were recorded. Overall AAMR declined until 2009 (APC: -1.28; P .05) and then increased through 2023 (APC: 0.72; P .05). Males accounted for 66.03% of deaths, and adults aged 75-84 years showed the fastest recent increase (APC: 3.83; P .05). By 2023, Non-Hispanic (NH) White individuals had a higher AAMR than NH Black individuals (4.64 vs 3.51 per 100,000). Mortality increased in nonmetropolitan areas (AAPC: 0.53; P .05) and the Midwest (AAPC: 0.56; P .05). State-level AAMR was highest in West Virginia and lowest in Utah. Projections suggest this burden will persist through 2046.

CONCLUSION

Mortality from LOCP cancers has shifted toward NH White individuals, older adults, nonmetropolitan populations, and the Midwest. These findings support targeted prevention, early detection, and referral strategies for high-burden groups.