Predicting range expansion of three tropical fruit flies and risks to pome and stone fruit production in temperate regions.

Human activities and climate change are driving the northward expansion of invasive fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae), posing increasing threats to temperate fruit production. Here, we combine the MaxEnt model with direct field observations to assess the potential range expansion of three tephritid species-Bactrocera dorsalis, Zeugodacus tau, and Z. cucurbitae-under climate change scenarios through 2060, and to evaluate the associated risks to temperate fruit production. Model projections indicate that the suitable habitat area for all three species will expand significantly in the future and shift to higher latitudes. By 2026, the net increase in suitable area for B. dorsalis, Z. tau, and Z. cucurbitae is predicted to be 5.14%, 3.50%, and 21.32%. Field monitoring in Chinese temperate orchards confirmed substantial fruit fly damage, with B. dorsalis dominating in most pear orchards and Z. tau densities increasing later in the season. The highly polyphagous B. dorsalis poses the greatest risk, especially to peach and plum orchards, whereas late‑maturing fruit varieties appear more vulnerable to Z. tau. These findings offer valuable insights for developing proactive management strategies in temperate orchards within the projected expansion ranges of these species.