Analysis of Disease Burden and Future Trend Prediction for Iron Deficiency-Induced Abortion and Miscarriage in BRICS Countries.

OBJECTIVE

Iron deficiency is the most common nutritional deficiency globally and a preventable cause of pregnancy loss. This study aims to assess its associated disease burden and predict future trends, which remain poorly characterized.

METHODS

Using the 2023 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database, we analyzed Disability-Adjusted Life Years(DALYs), Deaths, Years Lived with Disability(YLDs), and Years of Life Lost(YLLs) attributable to iron deficiency-related abortions and miscarriages among pregnant women across different regions globally and within BRICS countries. Driving factors were identified and future trends projected using Epidemiological Parameter Analysis and Calculation(EPAC), decomposition analysis, AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing(ES), and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC).

RESULTS

The disease burden varied inversely with Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) levels, being highest in low-SDI regions and lowest in high-SDI regions. From 1990 to 2023, the disease burden due to iron deficiency-related abortions and miscarriages showed a downward trend globally, with the most significant decline observed in Low SDI regions. However, these regions still had the highest disease burden. Among BRICS countries, India had the highest disease burden, accounting for 90% of the DALYs, Deaths, and YLLs in BRICS countries, and it also experienced the largest decline. In 2023, the disease burden in BRICS countries was primarily concentrated among women aged 20-24,25-29, and 30-34 years. Decomposition analysis indicated that epidemiological change had a negative impact on the disease burden, while population growth had a positive impact on all regions, with the greatest influence on Low SDI regions. The impact of aging on the disease burden was inconsistent across different regions and countries. After 2023, the disease burden of iron deficiency-related abortions and miscarriages among pregnant women in BRICS countries is projected to continue declining, with variations among countries.

CONCLUSION

The disease burden of iron deficiency-related abortions and miscarriages is generally inversely correlated with socioeconomic levels. Although both global and BRICS burdens have declined, the extent varies.