The determinants of forest area in Brazil: U-shaped association for gross domestic product per capita and for the value of agricultural production per hectare.

This study evaluates the impact of gross domestic product per capita (GDPC), the value of agricultural production (VAP), and the value of agricultural production per hectare (VAPH) on the forest area (FA) in Brazil by considering annual time series data ranging from 1990 to 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag approach is used to estimate our long-run elasticities. The increase in the VAP is associated with a reduction in FA in the long-run. However, the VAPH and the GDPC both have a U-shaped association with FA. Indeed, with an increase in the VAPH (resp. GDPC), FA decreases; then after a threshold point, begins to increase. In Brazil, deforestation can be reversed by continuous economic growth accompanied by the propagation of environmental education within the population. Also, agricultural green technologies, such as aeroponics for vegetable culture or smart agriculture, should be encouraged through subsidies or advantageous credits, as they increase the VAPH.