Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2024
Competing risks of monomorphic vs. non-monomorphic ventricular arrhythmias in primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator recipients: Global Electrical Heterogeneity and Clinical Outcomes (GEHCO) study.
СтатьяМногоцентровое исследованиеСравнительное исследованиеНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Tereshchenko Larisa G, Waks Jonathan W, Tompkins Christine, Rogers Albert J, Ehdaie Ashkan, Henrikson Charles A, Dalouk Khidir, Raitt Merritt, Kewalramani Shivangi, Kattan Michael W, Santangeli Pasquale, Wilkoff Bruce W, Kapadia Samir R, Narayan Sanjiv M, Chugh Sumeet S
Аннотация
AIMS: Ablation of monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (MMVT) has been shown to reduce shock frequency and improve survival. We aimed to compare cause-specific risk factors for MMVT and polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (PVT)/ventricular fibrillation (VF) and to develop predictive models.
METHODS AND RESULTS: The multicentre retrospective cohort study included 2668 patients (age 63.1 ± 13.0 years; 23% female; 78% white; 43% non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy; left ventricular ejection fraction 28.2 ± 11.1%). Cox models were adjusted for demographic characteristics, heart failure severity and treatment, device programming, and electrocardiogram metrics. Global electrical heterogeneity was measured by spatial QRS-T angle (QRSTa), spatial ventricular gradient elevation (SVGel), azimuth, magnitude (SVGmag), and sum absolute QRST integral (SAIQRST). We compared the out-of-sample performance of the lasso and elastic net for Cox proportional hazards and the Fine-Gray competing risk model. During a median follow-up of 4 years, 359 patients experienced their first sustained MMVT with appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy, and 129 patients had their first PVT/VF with appropriate ICD shock. The risk of MMVT was associated with wider QRSTa [hazard ratio (HR) 1.16; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.34], larger SVGel (HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.05-1.30), and smaller SVGmag (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.63-0.86) and SAIQRST (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.71-0.99). The best-performing 3-year competing risk Fine-Gray model for MMVT [time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC(t)AUC) 0.728; 95% CI 0.668-0.788] identified high-risk (> 50%) patients with 75% sensitivity and 65% specificity, and PVT/VF prediction model had ROC(t)AUC 0.915 (95% CI 0.868-0.962), both satisfactory calibration.
CONCLUSION: We developed and validated models to predict the competing risks of MMVT or PVT/VF that could inform procedural planning and future randomized controlled trials of prophylactic ventricular tachycardia ablation.
CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL:www.clinicaltrials.gov Unique identifier:NCT03210883.
METHODS AND RESULTS: The multicentre retrospective cohort study included 2668 patients (age 63.1 ± 13.0 years; 23% female; 78% white; 43% non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy; left ventricular ejection fraction 28.2 ± 11.1%). Cox models were adjusted for demographic characteristics, heart failure severity and treatment, device programming, and electrocardiogram metrics. Global electrical heterogeneity was measured by spatial QRS-T angle (QRSTa), spatial ventricular gradient elevation (SVGel), azimuth, magnitude (SVGmag), and sum absolute QRST integral (SAIQRST). We compared the out-of-sample performance of the lasso and elastic net for Cox proportional hazards and the Fine-Gray competing risk model. During a median follow-up of 4 years, 359 patients experienced their first sustained MMVT with appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy, and 129 patients had their first PVT/VF with appropriate ICD shock. The risk of MMVT was associated with wider QRSTa [hazard ratio (HR) 1.16; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.34], larger SVGel (HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.05-1.30), and smaller SVGmag (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.63-0.86) and SAIQRST (HR 0.84; 95% CI 0.71-0.99). The best-performing 3-year competing risk Fine-Gray model for MMVT [time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC(t)AUC) 0.728; 95% CI 0.668-0.788] identified high-risk (> 50%) patients with 75% sensitivity and 65% specificity, and PVT/VF prediction model had ROC(t)AUC 0.915 (95% CI 0.868-0.962), both satisfactory calibration.
CONCLUSION: We developed and validated models to predict the competing risks of MMVT or PVT/VF that could inform procedural planning and future randomized controlled trials of prophylactic ventricular tachycardia ablation.
CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL:www.clinicaltrials.gov Unique identifier:NCT03210883.