BMC research notes · 2026
A model for prediction of recurrence risk after zero-fluoroscopy catheter ablation for patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.
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Zhao Lei, Li Ruibin, Bai Long, Zhang Jidong
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify independent risk factors for atrial fibrillation recurrence after fluoroscopy-free radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF), and to develop and validate a nomogram model for individualized prediction of postprocedural PAF recurrence risk.
RESULTS: Clinical data of 204 PAF patients undergoing initial fluoroscopy-free RFA were retrospectively analyzed with a median 18.7-month follow-up, and 20.6% of patients had recurrence.Age, left atrial diameter, hypertension, and PAF disease duration were confirmed as independent recurrence risk factors. The validated nomogram showed excellent predictive performance, with C-indexes of 0.813 and 0.805 in the training and validation sets, respectively. Time-dependent ROC analyses revealed favorable AUC values for 6-month, 1-year and 2-year recurrence prediction. Calibration metrics and sensitivity analysis verified the model's favorable stability and accuracy.
RESULTS: Clinical data of 204 PAF patients undergoing initial fluoroscopy-free RFA were retrospectively analyzed with a median 18.7-month follow-up, and 20.6% of patients had recurrence.Age, left atrial diameter, hypertension, and PAF disease duration were confirmed as independent recurrence risk factors. The validated nomogram showed excellent predictive performance, with C-indexes of 0.813 and 0.805 in the training and validation sets, respectively. Time-dependent ROC analyses revealed favorable AUC values for 6-month, 1-year and 2-year recurrence prediction. Calibration metrics and sensitivity analysis verified the model's favorable stability and accuracy.