[Predictive capacity of 30-day mortality using the Nottingham Scale in people aged 65 years or older with hip fracture in Michoacán].

BACKGROUND

Hip fracture is a high-morbidity and high-mortality event in older adults. Early identification of the risk of death allows for optimized therapeutic decisions.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the predictive capacity of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Scale (NHFS) for estimating 30-day mortality in individuals aged 65 years or older with a hip fracture.

MATERIAL AND

METHODS

A prospective, observational, longitudinal study was conducted in two IMSS hospitals in Michoacán, Mexico. Patients aged 65 years or older with a hip fracture were included. The NHFS score and its discriminative capacity were calculated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

169 patients were included; the 30-day mortality rate was 14.2%. Hemoglobin < 10 g/dL showed the strongest association with mortality, followed by in-hospital delirium and the NHFS score. In the multivariable model, severe anemia remained an independent predictor. The discriminative capacity of the scale was moderate (AUC = 0.746). The optimal cutoff point was ≥ 5 points.

CONCLUSIONS

The Nottingham scale showed moderate discriminatory ability to predict 30-day mortality. Severe anemia emerged as an independent predictor of mortality.