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Identifying memory mechanisms in Bayesian models of behavioural change during epidemics.

Accurate modelling of epidemic dynamics often requires accounting for how individuals modify their behaviour in response to perceived infection risk. While existing behavioural change epidemic models attempt to capture this feedback, they usually make simple, ad hoc assumptions about how memory affects responses. For example, they mostly focus on recent cases only, thereby overlooking how earlier experiences continue to shape current perceptions of risk. This study introduces a unified framework of Memory Mechanism Enhanced Behavioural Change (MEBC) models within a Bayesian SIR epidemic modell

An immunity-driven modelling framework for epidemics of non-sterilizing infections.

Protecting populations against pathogens that induce non-sterilizing immunity remains a major public health challenge. However, conventional mathematical models are often incompatible with within-host data, offering limited insight into how immune responses drive epidemics. To address this gap, we develop a modular, data-driven mathematical framework that links immunological and virological dynamics to population-level transmission. Our approach derives infectiousness from viral load and protection against reinfection from time-varying immune responses, allowing epidemic trajectories to emerge…

Temporal shifts in polygenic traits track major epidemics in Western Eurasia.

Infectious diseases are recognized as one of the strongest selective forces, exerting a profound influence on the genetic makeup of human populations over time. Recently, large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on immunological traits have underscored the notion that genetic predisposition to infectious diseases likely stems from the contribution of several thousand loci across the human genome. To model the polygenic inheritance of these traits, multiple variants can be combined into polygenic risk scores (PRS), which estimate an individual's genetic predisposition for a trait. By

Phylodynamic evolution of HIV-1 A6 sub-subtype epidemics in Poland.

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) A6 sub-subtype is highly prevalent in Eastern Europe. Over the past decade, the dissemination of the A6 lineage has been expanding in Poland. The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine may further escalate the spread of this sub-subtype. While evolutionary studies using viral sequences have been instrumental in identifying the HIV epidemic patterns, the origins, and dynamics of the A6 sub-subtype in Poland remain to be explored. We analyzed 1185 HIV-1 A6 pol sequences from Poland, along with 8318 publicly available sequences from other countries. For

Практический подход к подготовке вашей СИС к эпидемиям и пандемии.

ЦЕЛЬ ОБЗОРА: Растут масштабы и частота крупных вспышек инфекционных заболеваний, включая эпидемии и пандемии, что создает угрозу для здоровья населения и подрывает потенциал систем здравоохранения во всем мире. Инфекционные заболевания высокой последовательности (ХКИД), включая высокопатогенные респираторные вирусы и вирусные геморрагические лихорадки, являются как инфекционными, так и вирулентными, и поэтому эти патогены представляют особый интерес для планирования пандемий. ПОСЛЕДНИЕ ВЫВОДЫ: Пандемия COVID-19 продемонстрировала, как крупная вспышка заболевания может негативно сказаться на вс

Совпадение в аннотации оригинала
PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Major outbreaks of infectious diseases, including epidemics and pandemics, are increasing in scope and frequency, threatening public health and straining the capacity of health systems worldwide. High-consequence infectious diseases (HCIDs), including highly pathogenic respiratory viruses and viral hemorrhagic fevers, are both contagious a…

Inferring the reproduction number using the renewal equation in heterogeneous epidemics.

Real-time estimation of the reproduction number has become the focus of modelling groups around the world as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic unfolds. One of the most widely adopted means of inference of the reproduction number is via the renewal equation, which uses the incidence of infection and the generation time distribution. In this paper, we derive a multi-type equivalent to the renewal equation to estimate a reproduction number which accounts for heterogeneity in transmissibility including through asymptomatic transmission, symptomatic isolation and vaccination. We demonstrate how use of the re

Emerging quinoline- and quinolone-based antibiotics in the light of epidemics.

Pandemics are large-scale outbreaks of infectious disease that can greatly increase morbidity and mortality all the globe. Since past 1990 till twentieth century, these infectious diseases have been major threat all over the globe associated with poor hygiene and sanitation. In light of these epidemics, researches have gained enormous rise in the developing the potential therapeutic treatment. Thus, revolutionized antibiotics have led to the near eradication of such ailments. Around 50 million prescription of antibiotics written in US per year according to center for disease control and preven…

Clinical features of COVID-19 and SARS epidemics. A literature review.

SARS-CoV-2, responsible for the current pandemic, is a novel strain of the Coronaviridae family, which has infected humans as a result of the leap to a new species. It causes an atypical pneumonia similar to that caused by SARS-CoV in 2003. SARS-CoV-2 has currently infected more than 9,200,000 people and caused almost 480,000 deaths worldwide. Although SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV have similar phylogenetic and pathogenetic characteristics, they show important differences in clinical manifestations. We have reviewed the recent literature comparing the characteristics of the two epidemics and highlig…

Impact of concurrent epidemics of dengue, chikungunya, zika, and COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated the epidemiological implications of arbovirus infections and coronavirus disease (COVID-19) co-occurrence … cases per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Espírito Santo experienced an overlap of epidemics, especially in urban areas.

The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics-how and why?

It is very exceptional that a new disease becomes a true pandemic. Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread to nearly all countries of the world in only a few months. However, in different countries, the COVID-19 epidemic takes variable shapes and forms in how it affects communities. Until now, the insights gained on COVID-19 have been largely dominated by the COVID-19 epidemics and the lockdowns in China, Europe and the USA. But this variety of global trajectories is little descr…

Accounting for cross-immunity can improve forecast accuracy during influenza epidemics.

Previous exposure to influenza viruses confers cross-immunity against future infections with related strains. However, this is not always accounted for explicitly in mathematical models used for forecasting during influenza outbreaks. We show that, if an influenza outbreak is due to a strain that is similar to one that has emerged previously, then accounting for cross-immunity explicitly can improve the accuracy of real-time forecasts. To do this, we consider two infectious disease outbreak forecasting models. In the first (the "1-group model"), all individuals are assumed to be identical and

PANGEA-HIV 2: Phylogenetics And Networks for Generalised Epidemics in Africa.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa is far from being under control and the ambitious UNAIDS targets are unlikely to b … available for the study of HIV transmission. The PANGEA (Phylogenetics And Networks for Generalized Epidemics in Africa) consortium has generated over 18 000 NGS HIV sequences from five countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Using phylogenetic methods, we will identify characteristics of individuals or groups, which are most likely to be at risk of infection or a …

Nontrivial resource requirement in the early stage for containment of epidemics.

During epidemic control, containment of the disease is usually achieved through increasing a devoted resource to reduce the infectiousness. However, the impact of this resource expenditure has not been studied quantitatively. For disease spread, the recovery rate can be positively correlated with the average amount of resource devoted to infected individuals. By incorporating this relation we build a novel model and find that insufficient resource leads to an abrupt increase in the infected population size, which is in marked contrast with the continuous phase transitions believed previously.

Cholera hotspots and surveillance constraints contributing to recurrent epidemics in Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: We described the dynamics of cholera in Tanzania between 2007 and 2017 and assessed the weaknesses of the current surveillance system in providing necessary data in achieving the global roadmap to 2030 for cholera control. RESULTS: The Poisson-based spatial scan identified cholera hotspots in mainland Tanzania. A zero-inflated Poisson regression investigated the relationship between the incidence of cholera and available demographic, socio-economic and climatic exposure variables. Four cholera hotspots were detected covering 17 regions, home to 28 million people, including the cent

Recurrent cholera epidemics in Africa: which way forward? A literature review.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of cholera in Africa seem to be unrelenting which has been continuous and recurrent leading to high morbidity and mortality in some quarters. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this narrative review is to investigate and identify factors responsible for the recurrent outbreaks of cholera in Africa and response strategies that have been employed in curbing the problem, with the view of aggregating otherwise sparing data needed for policy formulation geared towards control and eradication of the disease. METHODS: Search of literatures indexed in Google Scholar, PubMed and AJOL d

Two thousand years of epidemics in Marseille and the Mediterranean Basin.

Marseille has been exposed to epidemics for two millennia, including plague, cholera and yellow fever. This long-standing exposure to epidemics has given the people of Marseilles a particular expertise in fighting epidemics. Lazarets and other quarantine measures were implemented as a response to preventing the further spread of the disease in the community. The Institut Hospitalier Universitaire Méditerranée Infection is paving the way today, with its responses built on the region's long history and knowledge of epidemics, infectious diseases and medical microbiology.

Yellow fever in the Americas: the growing concern about new epidemics.

Yellow fever (YF) is a haemorrhagic viral disease with a high case fatality rate. It is considered a reemerging infectious disease of remarkable importance. During the last outbreaks in Brazil (2016-2017), many cases of YF emerged despite high YF vaccination coverage in some areas. However, there are many areas and populations worldwide where vaccination coverage has been low for years (e.g. Nigeria), which increases the risk of major epidemics in such areas, as would be the case in many of the American territories. Several factors, including the vast border and migratory status of Brazil, the…

Endocarditis as a Marker for New Epidemics of Injection Drug Use.

BACKGROUND: We examined discharges for infective endocarditis (IE) at an academic teaching hospital for over 10 years to evaluate if an increase in hospitalizations for IE and increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) in patients with IE could predict a new epidemic of injection drug use (IDU). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective medical record review of discharged patients with the diagnosis of IE as defined by the modified Duke criteria. Student's t test, chi-squared test and Fisher's exact test were used to calculate P values. RESULTS: There were 542 discharges among 392 unique patients with I