Результаты поиска

Comparing diagnostic methods for historical arbovirus outbreaks: Insights from 19th century "dengue" epidemics.

This study reexamines historical "dengue" epidemics of the 18th and 19th centuries, suggesting that chikungunya virus (CHIKV), rather than dengue virus (DENV), may have been responsible for many of these outbreaks. While "dengue" was identified as a tropical disease in the 19th century, its exact characteristics remain unclear, and some descriptions align more closely with CHIKV, known for its distinctive symptom of joint pain. Three approaches were used to investigate these historical epidemics: (A) Expert opinion provided a contextualized and comprehensive analysis but faced criticism for it…

Application of the Time Derivative (TD) Method for Early Alert of Influenza Epidemics.

BACKGROUND: In order to minimize the spread of seasonal influenza epidemic to communities worldwide, the Korea Disease Control and Preventio … ntary approach to the existing influenza alert system for the early detection of seasonal influenza epidemics. METHODS: The usefulness of the TD method as an early epidemic alert system was evaluated by applying the ILI rate for each week during past seasons when seasonal influenza epidemics occurred, ranging from the 2013-2014 season to the 2022-2023 seas …

Ecologic, Geoclimatic, and Genomic Factors Modulating Plague Epidemics in Primary Natural Focus, Brazil.

Plague is a deadly zoonosis that still poses a threat in many regions of the world. We combined epidemiologic, host, and vector surveillance data collected during 1961-1980 from the Araripe Plateau focus in northeastern Brazil with ecologic, geoclimatic, and Yersinia pestis genomic information to elucidate how these factors interplay in plague activity. We identified well-delimited plague hotspots showing elevated plague risk in low-altitude areas near the foothills of the plateau's concave sectors. Those locations exhibited distinct precipitation and vegetation coverage patterns compared with

Silences and Omissions in Reporting Epidemics in Russian and Soviet Prisons, 1890-2021.

Penitentiary systems serve as breeding grounds for all kinds of diseases. Drawing upon new archival materials, this article examines the history of the management and reporting of epidemics in the Russian prison system from the late Imperial period to the present day. We use the case studies of cholera (1892-1893), typhus (1932-1933), and pulmonary tuberculosis (the 1990s) to examine how the general political and social conjuncture at different times affected the response of prison authorities to epidemics to show that, notwithstanding major shifts in society and polity, there was continuity i…

A novel geo-hierarchical population mobility model for spatial spreading of resurgent epidemics.

Computational models for large, resurgent epidemics are recognized as a crucial tool for predicting the spread of infectious diseases. It is widely agreed, that such models can be augmented with realistic multiscale population models and by incorporating human mobility patterns. Nevertheless, a large proportion of recent studies, aimed at better understanding global epidemics, like influenza, measles, H1N1, SARS, and COVID-19, underestimate the role of heterogeneous mixing in populations, characterized by strong social structures and geography. Motivated by the reduced tractability of studies …

Post COVID-19: a solution scan of options for preventing future zoonotic epidemics.

The crisis generated by the emergence and pandemic spread of COVID-19 has thrown into the global spotlight the dangers associated with novel diseases, as well as the key role of animals, especially wild animals, as potential sources of pathogens to humans. There is a widespread demand for a new relationship with wild and domestic animals, including suggested bans on hunting, wildlife trade, wet markets or consumption of wild animals. However, such policies risk ignoring essential elements of the problem as well as alienating and increasing hardship for local communities across the world, and m

Spatial comparison of herald and main waves in London's nineteenth-century cholera epidemics.

Nineteenth-century London experienced four extraordinarily severe summertime cholera epidemics. Three were preceded by less severe non-summer outbreaks. Twenty-first-century research hypothesizes them as herald waves of potentially new cholera strains. This study examined the geographical characteristics of these herald waves and compared them to their subsequent main waves to determine if there was a geographical component to the significant difference in wave severity. Cholera mortality data for London's parishes and registration districts were extracted from contemporaneous records. The dat…

Identifying geographic areas at risk of rubella epidemics in Japan using seroepidemiological data.

OBJECTIVE: Even with relatively high vaccination coverage, Japan experienced rubella epidemics in 2012-2014 and 2018-2019, which were fueled by untraced imported cases. We aimed to develop a risk map for rubella epidemics in Japan by geographic location via analysis of seroepidemiological data and accounting for the abundance of foreign visitors. METHODS: Geographic age distribution and seroprevalence were used to compute the age- and sex-dependent next-generation matrix in each region. We computed the probability of a major epidemic using the assumed number of untraced imported rubella cases…

Spatial association between sporotrichosis in cats and in human during a Brazilian epidemics.

Sporotrichosis is a subcutaneous granulomatous disease caused by the fungus Sporothrix spp. In Brazil, S. brasiliensis is reported in regions of outbreaks and epidemics in the zoonotic form of the disease where cats play an important role in the transmission of the disease to humans. Therefore, it is important to assess how the presence of infected cats impacts the risk for sporotrichosis in humans. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial association of sporotrichosis in cats and in humans from Belo Horizonte, a Brazilian city where an epidemics of sporotrichosis occurs since th…

Ebola and Covid-19 in Sierra Leone comparative lessons of epidemics for society.

This case study focuses on two epidemic diseases in Sierra Leone. Ebola in 2014-15 drew international response, but was contained within the Upper West African region. Covid-19 reached Sierra Leone in April 2020 as part of a global pandemic. Comparing the two cases allows closer examination of historical context as a factor shaping medical emergencies. Ebola response references Sierra Leone's history as a humanitarian project associated with the abolition slavery. The pandemic challenge of Covid-19 draws attention to Sierra Leone's nodal position within a global diaspora shaped by Atlantic sla

Ancient RNA virus epidemics through the lens of recent adaptation in human genomes.

Over the course of the last several million years of evolution, humans probably have been plagued by hundreds or perhaps thousands of epidemics. Little is known about such ancient epidemics and a deep evolutionary perspective on current pathogenic threats is lacking. The study of past epidemics has typically been limited in temporal scope to recorded history, and in physical scope to pathogens that left sufficient DNA behind, such as Yersinia pestis during the Great Plague. Host genomes, however, offer an indirect way to detect ancient epidemics beyond the current temporal and physical limits.…

Спатиовременные характеристики и основные факторы, влияющие на типичные эпидемии лихорадки денге в Китае.

БАКГРЕСС: лихорадка Денге (ДФ) является широко распространенным вирусным инфекционным заболеванием, передаваемым через комары в мире, и все более серьезные эпидемии ДФ в Китае в последние годы серьезно сказались на здоровье людей. Таким образом, для укрепления эффективных мер по предупреждению этих региональных эпидемий и борьбе с ними решающее значение имеет изучение динамики и потенциальных факторов воздействия на них в типичных регионах. МЕТОДЫ: Для выявления потенциальных факторов, влияющих на традиционно-временную эпидемию в типичных эпидемических регионах Китая (например, Дельта реки Пёр

Совпадение в аннотации оригинала
BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) is a common mosquito-borne viral infectious disease in the world, and increasingly severe DF epidemics in China have seriously affected people's health in recent years. Thus, investigating spatiotemporal patterns and potential influencing factors of DF epidemics in typical regions is critical to consolidate effective prevention …

Correction to: Recurrent cholera epidemics in Africa: which way forward? A literature review.

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake. In the introduction, the infectious dose of Vibrio cholerae was written as 103-108 instead of 103-108 cells.

Evaluation of Nowcasting for Detecting and Predicting Local Influenza Epidemics, Sweden, 2009-2014.

The growing availability of big data in healthcare and public health opens possibilities for infectious disease control in local settings. We prospectively evaluated a method for integrated local detection and prediction (nowcasting) of influenza epidemics over 5 years, using the total population in Östergötland County, Sweden. We used routine health information system data on influenza-diagnosis cases and syndromic telenursing data for July 2009-June 2014 to evaluate epidemic detection, peak-timing prediction, and peak-intensity prediction. Detection performance was satisfactory throughout th…

Entomological and epidemiological aspects of dengue epidemics in Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil, 2001-2012.

OBJECTIVE: to characterize the entomological and epidemiological aspects of dengue epidemics occurred in Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil, from 2001 to 2012. METHODS: descriptive study with data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (Sinan), Information System of Hospitalizations due to Yellow Fever and Dengue (2001-2009), National Program for Dengue Control (2010-2012), and Rapid Survey of Aedes aegypti Infestation Index, referring to the years in which the incidence of dengue was above 75%. RESULTS: from 2001 to 2012, 194,446 cases of suspected dengue were notified; the epidemic year…

Novel Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium Genotype Levels as Herald of Seasonal Salmonellosis Epidemics.

We examined the population dynamics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium during seasonal salmonellosis epidemics in New South Wales, Australia, during 2009-2016. Of 15,626 isolates, 5%-20% consisted of novel genotypes. Seasons with salmonellosis epidemics were associated with a reduction in novel genotypes in the preceding winter and spring.

Воздействие климата на новые районы риска в связи с эпидемиями лихорадки Рифт-Вэлли в Танзании.

Рифтская лихорадка долины (RVF) — климатическая инфекция животных и людей. Считается, что климат представляет собой угрозу для новых районов риска эпидемий РВФ во всем мире. Цель этого исследования заключалась в оценке влияния климата на распределение подходящих мест размножения для комплекса Culex Pipiens, потенциального переносчика комаров, ответственного за передачу и распространение районов риска эпидемий в Танзании. Мы использовали экологические нишевые модели для оценки потенциального распределения районов риска заболеваний на основе подхода, основанного на данных о переносчиках и сопутс

Совпадение в аннотации оригинала
Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for Culex pipiens complex, potential mosquito vector responsible …

Historical Trends in the Hepatitis C Virus Epidemics in North America and Australia.

BACKGROUND: Bayesian evolutionary analysis (coalescent analysis) based on genetic sequences has been used to describe the origins and spread … used in a coalescent analysis with BEAST software to estimate the origin and progression of the HCV epidemics in Australia and North America. Convergent temporal trends were sought via independent epidemiological modeling. RESULTS: The epidemic of subtype 3a had more recent origins (around 1950) than subtype 1a (around 1920) in both continents. In both mod …

Evaluation of response strategies against epidemics due to Neisseria meningitidis C in Niger.

OBJECTIVE: To inform public health recommendations, we evaluated the effectiveness and efficiency of current and hypothetical surveillance and vaccine response strategies against Neisseria meningitidis C meningitis epidemics in 2015 in Niger. METHODS: We analysed reports of suspected and confirmed cases of meningitis from the region of Dosso during 2014 and 2015. Based on a definition of epidemic signals, the effectiveness and efficiency of surveillance and vaccine response strategies were evaluated by calculating the number of potentially vaccine-preventable cases and number of vaccine doses…