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An improved inverse method for estimating disease transmission rates in epidemics with low-incidence data.

The accurate estimation of time-varying transmission rates is fundamental for understanding infectious disease dynamics and implementing effective public health interventions. To this end, we propose an improved inverse method for estimating time-varying transmission rates in low-incidence settings, where conventional data pre-processing approaches often fail owing to sparse-case observations. To overcome this difficulty, we introduce an exponential B-spline interpolation approach that integrates both continuous and discrete inverse methods. In addition, we incorporate a non-standard finite-di

Role of communities in preparedness, response and resilience to cholera epidemics: a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Cholera remains a major global health concern, particularly in fragile and resource-limited settings despite global efforts to reduce cholera morbidity and mortality. While community engagement is widely recognised as a cornerstone of sustainable cholera control, evidence on its effective implementation, particularly the concrete roles of communities in preparedness, response and resilience, is currently fragmented and poorly documented.This protocol describes a systematic review that aims to identify and synthesise global evidence on how communities contribute to cholera prepare

Конвергенция глобальных эпидемий: диабет как модулятор нейродегенеративных и нейро-воспалительных расстройств.

Диабет меллитус (ДМ) и неврологические расстройства быстро совпадают с глобальным бременем на здоровье, обусловленным старением населения, растущей распространенностью метаболического синдрома, а также ограниченностью возможностей раннего обнаружения и коррекции заболеваний для многих неврологических синдромов. Помимо своей устоявшейся роли в периферической нейропатии, связанной с диабетом, DM все чаще используется в качестве изменяющего фактора риска, фенотипа и прогнозирования широкого спектра заболеваний центральной и периферической нервной системы. В ходе этого обзора мы обобщаем текущие э

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… Conclusion Diabetes and neurological disease are converging epidemics, and the evidence presented in this Review demonstrates that diabetes intersects with neurodegenerative and neuro-inflammatory conditions in distinct and clinically meaningful ways. …

The role of viral interference in shaping RSV epidemics following the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Disruptions in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity were observed in different countries following the 2009 influenza pandemic. Given the limited use of non-pharmaceutical interventions, these disruptions do provide an opportunity to probe viral interference due to the out-of-season epidemics. The objectives of the study are twofold: to characterize atypical RSV activity in the United States (US) and to explore the mechanisms underlying changes in RSV epidemics following the pandemic. METHODS: Laboratory-confirmed RSV cases across 10 US regions from June 2007 to July 2019 we…

The Role of Viral Interference in Shaping RSV Epidemics Following the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Disruptions in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity were observed in different countries following the 2009 influenza pandemic. Given the limited use of non-pharmaceutical interventions, these disruptions provide an opportunity to probe viral interference due to the out-of-season epidemics. The objectives of the study are twofold: to characterize atypical RSV activity in the United States (US) and to explore the mechanisms underlying changes in RSV epidemics following the pandemic. METHODS: Laboratory-confirmed RSV cases across 10 US regions from June 2007 to July 2019 were …

Time-series modeling of epidemics in complex populations: Detecting changes in incidence volatility over time.

Trends in infectious disease incidence provide important information about epidemic dynamics and prospects for control. Higher-frequency variation around incidence trends can shed light on the processes driving epidemics in complex populations, as transmission heterogeneity, shifting landscapes of susceptibility, and fluctuations in reporting can impact the volatility of observed case counts. However, measures of temporal volatility in incidence, and how volatility changes over time, are often overlooked in population-level analyses of incidence data, which typically focus on moving averages. …

The early-onset cancer epidemics: evidence synthesis using the prospective cohort incident-tumor biobank method.

Tumors likely develop over years/decades, implying that assessing long-term exposure to risk factors is crucial in cancer epidemiology. An increasing trend of long-term risk factor exposures starting from early life since the mid-twentieth century appears to have contributed to the epidemics of early-onset cancer (EOC) worldwide. A rising incidence of EOC has been reported in various body sites such as the bone marrow, bile duct, breast, colorectum, esophagus, gallbladder, head and neck, kidney, liver, pancreas, stomach, and uterine corpus. To address an intractable gap between long-term expos…

Western equine encephalitis virus: A comprehensive review of epidemics, transmission, hosts, and strategies for mitigation.

Recent increases in cases of western equine encephalitis (WEE) in South America have raised significant concerns about the virus's potential to cause an endemic disease due to its adaptation to mosquito vectors. Currently, there are no effective vaccines or treatments for WEEV, despite ongoing research into various biochemical products in animal models. The virus presents different pathological effects depending on the host. In humans, WEEV infection leads to central nervous system damage, resulting in encephalitis and severe neurological sequelae, which underscores the need for further resear

West Nile virus in Mexico: Why vectors matter for explaining the current absence of epidemics.

Since 2002, West Nile Virus (WNV) has been reported in 18 states in Mexico, either by PCR or serological testing. However, it is believed th … include Aedes and Culex spp. Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the absence of WNV epidemics in Latin America. Since some regions of Mexico and the United States share ecological and climatic conditions, these hypotheses may not be sufficient to account for the absence of WNV outbreaks or epidemics. This paper discusses the proposed ideas a …

Investigating vaccine-induced immunity and its effect in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in China.

BACKGROUND: To allow a return to a pre-COVID-19 lifestyle, virtually every country has initiated a vaccination program to mitigate severe disease burden and control transmission. However, it remains to be seen whether herd immunity will be within reach of these programs. METHODS: We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China, a population with low prior immunity from natural infection. Two vaccination programs were tested and model-based estimates of the immunity level in the population were provided. RESULTS: We found that it is unlikely to reach herd immunity for

The size of the susceptible pool differentiates climate effects on seasonal epidemics of bacillary dysentery.

OBJECTIVES: At present, some studies have pointed out several possible climate drivers of bacillary dysentery. However, there is a complex nonlinear interaction between climate drivers and susceptible population in the spread of diseases, which makes it challenging to detect climate drivers at the size of susceptible population. METHODS: By using empirical dynamic modeling (EDM), the climate drivers of bacillary dysentery dynamic were explored in China's five temperature zones. RESULTS: We verified the availability of climate drivers and susceptible population size on bacillary dysentery, an

Prevention and control measures significantly curbed the SARS-CoV-2 and influenza epidemics in China.

At the end of 2019, an outbreak of pneumonia took place caused by a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 virus), named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVI … und that implementing the series of measures against COVID-19 mitigated both COVID-19 and influenza epidemics in China. Prevention and control measures for COVID-19 might be used to control respiratory tract infections to reduce the national health economic burden caused by these pathogens.

Factors associated with human visceral leishmaniasis cases during urban epidemics in Brazil: a systematic review.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is endemic in 70 countries and has been reported in 12 countries of Latin America, with over 90% of the cases reported in Brazil, where epidemics have occurred since 1980. The objective of this review is to describe the factors associated with the occurrence of VL epidemics in humans in urban areas. A systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA-P guidelines. The databases PubMed (by Medline), Cochrane Library, Embase, Amed, LILACS and grey literature [Google Scholar and handsearch of the database of the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN) …

Assessing the feasibility and effectiveness of household-pooled universal testing to control COVID-19 epidemics.

Outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 are threatening the health care systems of several countries around the world. The initial control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics relied on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing, teleworking, mouth masks and contact tracing. However, as pre-symptomatic transmission remains an important driver of the epidemic, contact tracing efforts struggle to fully control SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. Therefore, in this work, we investigate to what extent the use of universal testing, i.e., an approach in which we screen the entire population, can be utilized to mitigate this …

Co-epidemics: have measures against COVID-19 helped to reduce Lassa fever cases in Nigeria?

While the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has multiple devastating public health and socio-economic effects across the world, Nigeria along with other West African countries is simultaneously faced with a recurrent Lassa fever epidemic. The complicating scenario is the similarity in the clinical manifestation of COVID-19 and Lassa fever, making the misdiagnosis of the initial presentation of both diseases a significant risk with an increased likelihood of co-infection. However, the strict implementation of COVID-19 infection prevention and control measures across Nigeria after the

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Severe Respiratory Failure During Respiratory Epidemics and Pandemics: A Narrative Review.

INTRODUCTION: Epidemics and pandemics from zoonotic respiratory viruses, such as the 2019 novel coronavirus, can lead to significant global intensive care burden as patients progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). A subset of these patients developed refractory hypoxaemia despite maximal conventional mechanical ventilation and required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). This review focuses on considerations for ventilatory strategies, infection control and patient selection related to ECMO for ARDS in a pandemic. We also summarise the experiences with ECMO in previous …

Mechanistic modelling of the large-scale Lassa fever epidemics in Nigeria from 2016 to 2019.

Lassa fever, also known as Lassa hemorrhagic fever, is a virus that has generated recurrent outbreaks in West Africa. We use mechanistic modelling to study the Lassa fever epidemics in Nigeria from 2016-19. Our model describes the interaction between human and rodent populations with the consideration of quarantine, isolation and hospitalization processes. Our model supports the phenomenon of forward bifurcation where the stability between disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium exchanges. Moreover, our model captures well the incidence curves from surveillance data. In particular, ou…

The environmental drivers of bacterial meningitis epidemics in the Democratic Republic of Congo, central Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Bacterial meningitis still constitutes an important threat in Africa. In the meningitis belt, a clear seasonal pattern in the … al and socio-economic drivers are important to consider in the epidemiology of bacterial meningitis epidemics in DRC. This information is important to help improving meningitis control strategies in a large country located outside of the so-called meningitis belt.