Predicting resistance to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in osteosarcoma using machine learning with clinical data and T2-weighted MRI radiomics.

OBJECTIVES

Identifying patients at risk of chemoresistant osteosarcoma enables risk-adapted management. This study aimed to predict chemoresistant osteosarcoma using baseline clinical and magnetic resonance (MRI)-derived radiomics features, with histological response as the reference standard and external validation included.

MATERIALS AND

METHODS

This retrospective single-center study included 115 patients with osteosarcoma from an institutional registry as the internal cohort, divided into training and test sets, and 49 patients from another institution as an external validation cohort. Tumor and peritumoral regions were manually segmented on baseline fat-suppressed T2-weighted MRI. Radiomics features were extracted using PyRadiomics, followed by two feature selection methods to identify potential predictors. Six machine learning models with varying feature combinations were trained to classify histologic chemoresistance in the internal training set. Model performance was assessed in the internal test set, and the best model was externally validated.

RESULTS

The support vector machine model combining eight tumor radiomics features and four clinical-imaging parameters (presence of tumor necrosis > 50% on contrast-enhanced MRI, age, body mass index, and presence of metastasis at presentation) demonstrated the best performance. In the internal test set, it achieved a sensitivity of 83.3%, a specificity of 72.7%, an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.84, and a positive likelihood ratio of 3.06. External validation yielded a sensitivity of 88.5%, a specificity of 47.8%, and an AUROC of 0.77.

CONCLUSION

A model combining tumor radiomics and clinical parameters at diagnosis showed strong performance in predicting chemoresistant osteosarcoma, with results confirmed by external validation. This approach may support personalized treatment strategies in high-grade osteosarcoma.

RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The validated model may support early, individualized osteosarcoma management.

KEY POINTS: Baseline T2-weighted MRI radiomics and clinical data can predict chemoresistant osteosarcoma. Tumor radiomics combined with clinical features achieved strong predictive accuracy. The support vector machine model reached an AUROC of 0.84 for the internal testing and of 0.77 for the external validation. The validated model may support early, individualized osteosarcoma management.