Multiple sclerosis and related disorders · 2025
External validation of the MOG-AR score for predicting post-attack relapse risk in a chinese cohort with MOGAD.
СтатьяНаблюдательное исследованиеВалидационное исследованиеНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Luo Wenjing, Huang Yiying, Du Yi, ZhangBao Jingzi, Luo Meifeng, Zhong Xiaonan, Tang Jingqun, Tang Yulan, Quan Chao, Wu Yuan, Qiu Wei, Wu Aimin
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD) frequently follows a relapsing course, necessitating early identification of patients at high risk of relapse to guide management strategies. Until recently, no validated risk assessment tool was available. The MOGAD Relapse (MOG-AR) score, developed within a Chinese cohort, stratifies post-attack relapse risk using various clinical factors. Our study aimed to externally validate the MOG-AR score in an independent Chinese MOGAD cohort.
METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 157 MOGAD patients from a tertiary center in South China, spanning June 2015 to May 2023. Clinical data were collected, and each patient's MOG-AR score was calculated based on five predictors: onset age, sex, attack phenotype, immunosuppressive therapy, and oral corticosteroid duration. Model performance was evaluated using Harrell's C-index for discrimination, calibration plots for calibration, and Kaplan-Meier analysis for comparing risk between MOG-AR score groups.
RESULTS: The cohort's median onset age was 27 years, with 51.6 % female and 78.3 % adults. Optic neuritis was the most common initial presentation (40.8 %), followed by transverse myelitis (14.0 %). During a median disease duration of 46 months, 87 patients (55.4 %) experienced at least one relapse. The MOG-AR score demonstrated a C-index of 0.72 (95 % confidence interval 0.63-0.81) and showed favorable alignment with calibration curves. Kaplan-Meier survival curves stratified by MOG-AR grade exhibited clear separation (log-rank p < 0.001).
CONCLUSION: The MOG-AR score was successfully externally validated in our MOGAD cohort, demonstrating strong discrimination and calibration in predicting post-attack relapses. Patients with higher MOG-AR scores exhibited significantly elevated relapse risks and shorter time to relapse.
METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 157 MOGAD patients from a tertiary center in South China, spanning June 2015 to May 2023. Clinical data were collected, and each patient's MOG-AR score was calculated based on five predictors: onset age, sex, attack phenotype, immunosuppressive therapy, and oral corticosteroid duration. Model performance was evaluated using Harrell's C-index for discrimination, calibration plots for calibration, and Kaplan-Meier analysis for comparing risk between MOG-AR score groups.
RESULTS: The cohort's median onset age was 27 years, with 51.6 % female and 78.3 % adults. Optic neuritis was the most common initial presentation (40.8 %), followed by transverse myelitis (14.0 %). During a median disease duration of 46 months, 87 patients (55.4 %) experienced at least one relapse. The MOG-AR score demonstrated a C-index of 0.72 (95 % confidence interval 0.63-0.81) and showed favorable alignment with calibration curves. Kaplan-Meier survival curves stratified by MOG-AR grade exhibited clear separation (log-rank p < 0.001).
CONCLUSION: The MOG-AR score was successfully externally validated in our MOGAD cohort, demonstrating strong discrimination and calibration in predicting post-attack relapses. Patients with higher MOG-AR scores exhibited significantly elevated relapse risks and shorter time to relapse.