Global, regional, and national burden of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), 1990-2021, with projections to 2050.

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a common digestive system disorder encountered in clinical practice. In recent years, the prevalence of GERD has increased, substantially affecting patients' daily lives. This study aimed to address this issue by leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database to systematically evaluate the burden and epidemiological characteristics of GERD and to predict trends in GERD burden from 2022 to 2050. We comprehensively analyzed the burden of GERD from 1990 to 2021, evaluated years lived with disability (YLDs), prevalence and incidence rates, and conducted stratified analyses according to geographical region, Sociodemographic Index (SDI), sex, and age groups ranging from 0 to 95 years. Globally, in 2021, there were 324 million (95% uncertainty interval (95% UI): 287.7-358.9 million) incident cases, 826 million (95% UI: 733-926 million) prevalent cases, and 6.34 million (95% UI: 3.19-11.24 million) YLDs attributable to GERD. Among individuals aged 0-95 years, women aged 35-39 years had the highest prevalence, estimated at 45.32 million (95% UI: 32.92-61.05 million). The burden was highest in middle-SDI regions and lowest in high-SDI regions. Predictions using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling indicated that the global burden of GERD will continue to increase from 2022 to 2050, posing increasingly severe challenges to global healthcare systems, particularly among women. It is projected that by 2050, women will account for 54% of new cases.