A scoring model based on risk factors for prediction of intussusception recurrence in pediatric patients.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to identify risk factors for recurrent intussusception in children and establish a recurrence prediction model based on follow-up data. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed on pediatric patients with intussusception who underwent air enema in our hospital from 2014 to 2019. Regression analysis was used to screen for recurrence-associated risk factors, and their hazard ratios (HR) were utilized to construct the prediction model. RESULTS: A total of 91 recurrent cases and 182 non-recurrent controls were enrolled. Hematochezia, fever, anti-inflammatory treatment, red blood cell distribution width coefficient of variation (RDW-CV), and thrombin time (TT) were confirmed as independent risk factors. The model showed a sensitivity of 72.5%, specificity of 83%, and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84. Children with early hematochezia (complicated with fever/anti-inflammatory exposure), RDW-CV ≥ 15.8, or TT ≥ 18.5s were categorized as high-risk for recurrence. CONCLUSION: Hematochezia, fever, anti-inflammatory treatment, RDW-CV, and TT are independent predictors of pediatric intussusception recurrence. The constructed model has favorable predictive performance and clinical utility.