Trends and projections of Burkitt Lymphoma burden (1990-2036): an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess the burden of Burkitt lymphoma (BL) at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990-2021 and to project trends over the next 15 years.

METHODS

Data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease database was used for analysis.

RESULTS

Both the incidence and prevalence rates of BL increased from 1990-2021. BL demonstrated a bimodal age pattern, with incidence peaking among children aged 5-9 years and again in adults older than 65 years. The disease burden was consistently greater in males than in females. A significant positive correlation was found between the sociodemographic index (SDI) and both the incidence and prevalence rates, whereas the mortality and DALY rates were significantly negatively correlated with the SDI. Health inequality analyses revealed that while incidence and prevalence burdens have increasingly concentrated in high-SDI countries, mortality and DALY burdens remain disproportionately higher in low-SDI regions. Frontier analysis demonstrated that in most countries, BL-related DALYs remain above the expected level on the basis of development status. The projected trend shows a slow but continuous decline in global BL age-standardized rates through 2036.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the past three decades, the global burden of BL has steadily increased, accompanied by pronounced regional and sex-related disparities closely associated with levels of sociodemographic development. This comprehensive analysis offers critical insights and evidence-based guidance to inform targeted strategies for the prevention and control of BL worldwide.