[Short-term prediction of a change in the total stock of Daursk suslik fleas in the Transbaikal natural focus of plague].

Based on 20-year studies of changes in the total store of the imago of Daursk souslik fleas in the Transbaikal natural focus of plague and on observations of variations in some environmental factors, equations of the short-term prediction of the size of fleas have been constructed for each month (from May to September inclusive). The equations include from one to three predictors that significantly influence the dynamics in the abundance of exoparasites. A nonlinear regression analysis was used for statistical data processing. The results and reliability of short-term stepwise prediction of the size of souslik fleas in the Transbaikal natural focus of plague from 1978 to 1987 are retrospectively considered.